* Scientists told MailOnline there was 'no doubt infections will rise' when pubs open and people start mixing * But said vaccines have 'solved the problem of serious

disease', so hospital and death rates should stay low * Came after bleak modelling by Government's scientists suggested there could be a final peak of 1,000 deaths By CONNOR BOYD

ASSISTANT HEALTH EDITOR FOR MAILONLINE Published: 11:43 EDT, 25 March 2021 | Updated: 12:49 EDT, 25 March 2021 Britain could be hit with an 'exit wave' of Covid when lockdown is

lifted but it's unlikely to lead to an uncontrollable spike in hospital admissions or deaths, experts insisted today despite the predictions of a SAGE model released last week.

vulnerable people who haven't been jabbed or for whom the vaccines don't work.  The comments came after bleak modelling by Government scientists suggested last week there could be

a final peak of more than 1,000 deaths a day later in the year even with the immunisation programme steaming ahead. Warwick University researchers, who made the projection, claimed the more

infectious Kent variant would continue to spread in high numbers when lockdowns are eased, posing a constant threat to the elderly and ill –even with vaccines that cut transmission by 60 per

cent, as the Pfizer and AstraZeneca jabs do.  Britain has vaccinated around 54 per cent of all adults – almost 28.7million people. But only 5 per cent of people – 2.5million – have had both

jabs since the mass scheme began last December. That is not far behind Israel's vaccination level when it reopened the economy earlier this month. It had given 52 per cent of the

country’s 9.3million people their first dose. At the same time, 40 per cent had received their booster shot. There as been no exit wave in Israel.   The Warwick modelling team, which feeds

into the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE), has since admitted its estimates were too pessimistic and underestimated how effective the jabs would be at preventing

hospitalisation and death. The Sage model predicted that deaths could hit 1,000 a day in the summer if restrictions were lifted too quickly and vaccines proved less effective than hoped at

preventing infection. Britain is due to open non essential retail and pub beer gardens on April 12, and most of the rest of the economy on May 17 before restrictions are lifted completely on

21 jUNE.   Reacting to Warwick's findings, Professor Keith Neal, an epidemiologist at Nottingham University, told MailOnline: 'That model is so wrong and it just shows you

what's wrong with models in general.' He said it was inevitable cases will go up when lockdown is lifted but insisted people should 'stop caring about cases and start thinking

about people getting ill or dying', problems which he claimed the vaccines had solved. Professor Gabriel Scally, a public health expert at the University of Bristol, told MailOnline

that fresh breezy air and warm temperatures in summer were going to give the UK's Covid situation another 'fantastic advantage'. The virus finds it more difficult to spread

outside and hot air reduces the time it can survive after being sneezed or coughed into the environment. He pointed out that last year Covid deaths remained in double digits for four months

of summer, without the help of vaccines. Professor Scally said the Warwick forecasts were 'inconceivable' unless a new variant that can duck vaccines becomes widespread.  

Professor Neal told MailOnline: 'There's no doubt that when people start mixing, cases will go up. But vaccines have solved the serious disease problem. We shouldn't care

about cases.  'We think the country had about a million students catching Covid in the autumn last year and you'll struggle to find a single one who was admitted to hospital let

alone died. KENT NHS TRUST FEARS COVID SURGE IN JUNE THAT COULD SEE IT TREAT AS MANY INFECTED PATIENTS AS IT DID DURING LAST APRIL'S PEAK  An NHS trust fears it could face a huge Covid

surge this summer — and is preparing to treat as many infected patients as it did last April.  Maidstone and Tunbridge Wells, which was hit hard in the second wave, expects up to 100 beds to

be occupied by coronavirus patients in mid-June under a 'reasonably optimistic' scenario. But it warns this could double to 200 beds — more than a quarter of those available — if

vaccine uptake is poor, hampered by supply issues or affected by new variants.   The trust, which runs two hospitals, saw 90 beds occupied by Covid patients in the peak of the first wave

last spring. But this spiralled to more than 300 during the darkest days of the second wave, after the more infectious Kent variant triggered a devastating outbreak. The forecasts were based

on modelling by local health chiefs. But NHS sources said similar plans made at other trusts were based on gloomy predictions from SAGE that there could be a third wave of hospitalisations

later this year. Experts have poked holes in SAGE's forecasting, pointing out that coronaviruses are seasonal and spreads better in the winter.  'So we need to care less about

infections and start focusing on monitoring hospital admissions and deaths. The fear is that once lots of young people get infected that it spreads to vulnerable populations but we're

not sure that will happen. 'We opened up last year and didn't see the same splurge [as is suggested in Warwick's modelling].' Asked about how realistic Warwick's

forecasts were, Professor Scally added: 'That's inconceivable unless we see the worst possible circumstance, where the virus is able to run free and infect huge numbers of people

with moderate risk. 'I suppose if it circulates really widely then there might be the sort of numbers they suggest but that's the most pessimistic picture... summer and being

outdoors also has a fantastic advantage.' He added that as long as a new variant doesn't become widespread then 'we probably won't have it as bad as that [up to 1,000

deaths a day]'. But he warned: 'The Government is not helping - we still don't have a good Test and Trace programme and we're still not quarantining arrivals, so there

will be the danger of variants.' Dr Sam Moore, who co-authored the Warwick study, has since admitted his team's calculations underestimated the jabs' effect on severe disease.

Latest Public Health England analysis of the real-world impact of the jabs on Britain's crisis has suggested they cut hospital admissions and deaths by more than 90 per cent after two

doses, and by 85 and 80 per cent, respectively, after a single injection. Dr Moore told The Telegraph last Friday: 'Since we conducted this study, new evidence suggests there may be a

higher level of protection against severe disease offered by both the Pfizer/BioNTech and Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccines than the level we assumed. 'This may reduce the size of future

hospital admissions and deaths we estimated, making future waves more manageable for the health service.' But despite the admission from Dr Moore, some NHS bosses are still preparing

for worst possible outcomes this summer.  The NHS trust in Maidstone and Tunbridge Wells, in Kent, which was hit hard in the second wave, expects up to 100 beds to be occupied by coronavirus

patients in mid-June under a 'reasonably optimistic' scenario. But it warned this could double to 200 beds — more than a quarter of those available — if vaccine uptake is poor,

hampered by supply issues or affected by new variants.   The trust, which runs two hospitals, saw 90 beds occupied by Covid patients in the peak of the first wave last spring. But this

spiralled to more than 300 during the darkest days of the second wave, after the more infectious Kent variant triggered a devastating outbreak. The forecasts were based on modelling by local

health chiefs. But NHS sources said similar plans made at other trusts were based on gloomy predictions from SAGE that there could be a third wave of hospitalisations later this year.  The

Trust's meeting minutes, revealed by the Health Service Journal, showed they estimated a peak in Covid hospitalisations in the summer.  'With schools returning and public behaviour

changing, infection levels have a high probability of starting to pick up again in the younger, less medically vulnerable populations,' they said. 'This was observed in autumn,

when case counts started to rise in the younger population, but hospital admissions remained very low until a few weeks later, when infections started to rise in older populations.' But

the trust also predicts hospitalisations should start to tail off from June in its 'optimistic scenario' as the pandemic starts to 'burn itself out'. They said this

would be because the percentage of the population protected against the virus, either from vaccination or prior infection, would hit the critical 70 to 75 per cent 'herd immunity'

level. Ministers are aiming to vaccinate every adult in the country — 52million people — by the end of July.  But their roll-out has hit a snag this week amid a blocked delivery of 5million

doses from India, and EU threats of a vaccines export ban. And as the clock ticks down to when second doses must be administered en masse, millions of jabs are being held back to ensure the

NHS has adequate supplies. MORE THAN 150 MASS VACCINATION CENTRES COULD CLOSE NEXT MONTH AS SHORTAGES FORCE UNDER-50S TO WAIT FOR FIRST DOSES - BUT MATT HANCOCK CLAIMS JABS HAD ALREADY SAVED

THAN 6,000 LIVES BY MARCH AND SAGE CLAIMS HOSPITAL ADMISSIONS WILL HALVE IN APRIL * VACCINE CENTRES IN DEVON, CORNWALL AND KENT AMONG THOSE TO HAVE CONFIRM THEY WILL 'HAVE TO

PAUSE' IN APRIL * HEALTH SECRETARY CLAIMED NO10 RESEARCH FOUND VACCINATION SPARED MORE THAN 6,000 LIVES END OF FEBRUARY * HE SAID THE SUCCESS OF THE ROLLOUT MEANT HE COULD 'SEE AN

END' TO THE CRISIS FOR THE FIRST TIME IN THE PANDEMIC * FORECASTS BY NO10'S SCIENTISTS SAID COVID ADMISSIONS TO ENGLISH HOSPITALS POISED TO HALVE IN NEXT FORTNIGHT Mass coronavirus

vaccination sites across the UK have announced they will close temporarily next month due to looming supply issues – as Matt Hancock revealed the jabs have saved at least 6,000 lives

already in the UK.  Vaccine centres in Devon, Cornwall and Kent are among those to have confirmed they will 'have to pause' during the month-long slowdown, which has been triggered

by a shortfall of five million AstraZeneca jabs from India. If the rest of the country follows suit, it could see all 150 mass vaccination sites shut. The focus of the rollout will turn to

ensuring there are sufficient vaccine stocks to dish out crucial second doses, with staff at mass hubs around the country expected to be redeployed.  Local vaccination centres have also been

told to close unfilled bookings from March 31, with the supply constraint expected to last throughout April. The NHS has called on over-50s to book their first vaccine appointment while

they still can before Monday, or risk facing delays. GPs will continue contacting eligible patients on their lists, but some vaccination sites including Westpoint, near Exeter, have revealed

they will shut between April 1 and 11. All of Kent's five mass vaccination centres, for example, are set to close 'for a number of weeks' from next month. The pause in

Britain’s vaccine drive will mean that fewer Britons are vaccinated when No10 starts to reopen the economy on April 12 - but ministers have insisted the timetable will not be affected

despite predictions of an 'exit wave' of Covid cases as society opens up.  Meanwhile, Mr Hancock today claimed new Government-backed research had found vaccination spared more than

6,000 lives by the end of February. He said the rollout's success meant he could 'see an end' to the crisis. His comments to the Financial Times came as forecasts by

No10's scientists suggested the number of Covid patients being admitted to English hospitals is poised to halve in a fortnight, from 294 to fewer than 150. The projections from the

SPI-M modelling group also projected the number of deaths to drop fourfold, from 92 to 20, early next month and the level of inpatients with the disease to plummet from 4,000 to about 2,000.

The promising calculations, which have been presented to ministers, were made after children returned to classrooms this month, The Times reports. There were fears that reopening schools

could trigger a wave of infections.   SPI-M's modelling assumes that vaccinations will continue at current levels. More than 450,000 Brits are being jabbed every day, but there are

fears that supply issues next month could drastically slow the scheme down. Government data up to March 23 shows 28,653,523 people have received a first vaccine dose, a rise of 325,650 on

the previous day. Both AstraZeneca and Pfizer's vaccines have been shown to cut deaths and hospitalisations by more than 90 per cent after both doses and symptomatic infections by over

60 per cent.  All the the metrics now suggest Boris Johnson's cautious roadmap out of lockdown is firmly on track and the unusually optimistic projections from No10's experts will

pile more pressure on the PM to speed up his plan. The next phase of his lockdown-loosening schedule sees people allowed to meet outdoors in groups of six, or as two households, from March

29.  April 12 will see the first major easing of restrictions as hairdressers, beauty salons and shops get the green-light and pubs and restaurants able to open for outdoor service.  

Hospitality is not due to start welcoming customers through its doors until May and some form of social distancing rules will be in place until June 21 at the earliest.  Mr Hancock told the

FT he could see an 'end' to the pandemic that would involve managing coronavirus 'more like flu' with repeated and updated vaccinations.  MACRON DELIVERS HUMILIATING

VACCINE MEA CULPA AS EU 'HEADS FOR EXPORT BAN CLIMBDOWN' AT SUMMIT TODAY Emmanuel Macron has delivered an humiliating mea culpa on the EU's vaccine bungling as leaders gather

for a crunch summit today. The French president admitted that the bloc did not go 'fast enough or strong enough' on the drive for jabs, saying it thought they would take longer to

develop. But Mr Macron seemingly could not bring himself to praise the UK's stunning progress on vaccines, instead heaping praise on the US for 'shooting for the stars'. The

comments came as EU leaders hold a 'virtual' gathering amid panicky threats from the commission to ban vaccine exports, with new rules targeted at Britain. France and Germany are

backing tough action as they face massive pressure over dire rollouts, but Ireland and many other member states are alarmed at the idea of undermining legal contracts. Former commission

chief Jean-Claude Juncker waded into the spat this morning, branding the idea of a 'vaccine war' stupid and raising fears it will cause 'major reputational damage' to the

bloc. The EU and UK issued a joint statement pledging to work together last night, after Boris Johnson warned that businesses could flee the bloc's borders if it imposed

'arbitrary' blockades. The Health Secretary expressed confidence about the UK's ability to manage Covid-19 in the future, adding: 'It depends what you mean by

''end''.  'I see an end where Covid is managed more like flu: we repeatedly vaccinate, we update the vaccines according to mutations and we manage the challenges,

especially around transmissions over winter. 'I'm confident that's where we can get to. I want to get to a position where we can have an updated vaccine in weeks or months,

not a year.' It comes as Mr Johnson tries to push through an extension of lockdown laws until the autumn, despite restrictions officially ending in June. A hardcore of as many as 60

Conservative MPs is expected to rebel against Government plans to extend emergency powers to the end of September. Politicians in the Covid Recovery Group (CRG) blasted the 'significant

draconian powers' and questioned the need for them to be in place if the UK has returned to relative normal. However, any Tory rebellion is almost certain to fail to impede the

legislation, with Labour planning to back it in this evening's Commons vote. CRG leader Mark Harper, who believes plans to ease the lockdown 'could safely go more quickly',

told Sky News: 'The biggest problem today is the extension of some very significant draconian powers in the Coronavirus Act which the Government doesn't want to extend until June,

it actually wants to extend all the way into October. 'And these are quite significant powers; they are powers, for example, for the police to detain people indefinitely and to continue

having powers to shutdown events and so forth all the way through to October. 'And I haven't heard a single good answer about why the Government wishes to do that, given that the

Prime Minister has said he wants to be out of all of our legal restrictions by June.' The legislation for restrictions over the coming months, as the Government sets out its road map

for coming out of lockdown, will see some restrictions remain in place in England until at least June 21. There are also question marks over summer holidays taking place after that date,

amid a third wave of Covid infections in mainland Europe. But Conservative MP Steve Baker, deputy chairman of the CRG, said the vote was a 'rare opportunity' for MPs to 'say

no to a new way of life in a checkpoint society'. 'I was glad to hear the Prime Minister reassure William Wragg MP at the Liaison Committee today that 'anything that is

redundant will go' in relation to Coronavirus Act powers,' the former minister said last night. 'Draconian police powers under Schedule 21, which have a 100 per cent unlawful

prosecution record, must be considered 'redundant' to say the very least. 'I am seeking to table an amendment to the motion tomorrow asking ministers to suspend those powers.

I now hope the Government can support it.'