_RAY RICHMOND contributes to Deadline’s TV coverage._ Although both lead acting races in comedy feature plenty of familiar faces from last year, lead actor is an especially tough category to

gauge. A pair of previous winners (Alec Baldwin for NBC’s _30 Rock_ and Jim Parsons for CBS’ _The Big Bang Theory_) will face off against a heavyweight wild card (Louis C.K. for FX’s

beloved _Louie_). In the case of C.K., the love and admiration the comedian receives for being a multihyphenate (writer, director, producer, editor, etc.) is rather unprecedented. But

Baldwin and Parsons, who have made their roles iconic over the past several seasons, are unique talents in their own right. Their deserving competition includes Jason Bateman for Netflix’s

_Veep_. Her chief competition comes from Laura Dern for the canceled HBO comedy _Enlightened_ and previous winner Tina Fey for NBC’s departed _30 Rock_. Plus, there are three repeat nominees

looming as dark horses: Lena Dunham for HBO’s _Girls_, Amy Poehler for NBC’s _Parks And Recreation_ and Edie Falco for Showtime’s _Nurse Jackie_. Let the speculation begin. ALEC BALDWIN, 

_30 ROCK_, NBC Baldwin has been nominated seven straight years for his sublime performance as Jack Donaghy, winning twice (in 2008 and ’09). Sentiment figures to be on his side to win a

third for _30 Rock_’s final lap. His divisive politics and frequent controversial outbursts (most recently via Twitter in early July) work against him. He’s his own worst enemy. If Baldwin

weren’t so good, he’d be easy to hate. WATCH ON DEADLINE JASON BATEMAN, _ARRESTED DEVELOPMENT_, NETFLIX The novelty of having starred in the same role in the same series for two different

networks could work in Bateman’s favor. He has the nostalgia factor working for him in spades. Unfortunately, _Arrested Development_ didn’t land a comedy series nom, greatly reducing the

star’s chances of pulling an upset. In fact, it’s historically nearly impossible to win if your show isn’t nominated. Not a lot of buzz, either. DON CHEADLE, _HOUSE OF LIES_, SHOWTIME

Cheadle is a great actor with an Oscar history (he was nominated in 2005 for _Hotel Rwanda_). Pressure could also grow to finally honor an African-American performer at the lily-white Emmys.

Too much competition in the category. Too little attention paid to _House Of Lies_. And it’s simply a fact that African-Americans almost never win Emmys (except Alfre Woodard). LOUIS C.K.

_LOUIE_, FX C.K. is, more than ever, considered comedy’s gold standard, and it’s clear that TV Academy voters agree—bestowing on him another nine Emmy nominations (versus seven last year).

He also enjoyed some magnificent notices this season for his work opposite Parker Posey. The FX comedy is still seen as being too small and unknown. Despite the acclaim of the multihyphenate

C.K., he’s considered more of a writer and comic than an actor. MATT LEBLANC, _EPISODES_, SHOWTIME It’s possible that a rush of Friends nostalgia will overwhelm Emmy voters, leaving them no

choice but to honor LeBlanc. Some late buzz is also adding fuel to his candidacy. LeBlanc was quoted on Emmy morning saying, “I’m pretty much always the bridesmaid.” Looks like he will be

again proven right—his series is way off the radar, even by Showtime standards. JIM PARSONS, _THE BIG BANG THEORY_, CBS Parsons already has won twice before (in 2010 and ’11). Now all he has

to do is beat Alec Baldwin again. Simple. And his previous wins came before _Big Bang_ became hot with the cool people. He has to beat Baldwin again, and Parsons’ submitted _Big Bang_

episode—“The Habitation Configuration”—isn’t really his best. Of course, his best was probably a few seasons back. LAURA DERN, _ENLIGHTENED_, HBO It isn’t unprecedented for a star of a

canceled series to overcome the long odds and take home the gold, and Dern’s work in _Enlightened_ was widely praised. She’s also got an indie-feature pedigree that resonates. Not enough

people embraced the comedy to lift Dern to the Promised Land, which is why it was canceled in the first place. It’s simply doubtful voters are enlightened enough to vote her the trophy for

_Enlightened_. LENA DUNHAM, _GIRLS_, HBO Dunham has established herself as a polarizing personality, as beloved for her fearlessness as she is loathed for her exhibitionism. But controversy

can pay off. And no one denies her talent. And fearlessness. And sense of the offbeat. She’s viewed by too many as being manipulative and not terribly funny. And in image-obsessed Hollywood,

Dunham’s round body and exhibitionist ways can elicit derision. EDIE FALCO, _NURSE JACKIE_, SHOWTIME Residual sentiment for her Sopranos costar, the late James Gandolfini, could again push

Falco into the winners’ circle. That would go double if her character’s name were Carmela Soprano. When she won in 2010, Falco stood onstage and admonished voters, “I’m not funny!” No one

wants to risk a repeat of that. In truth, she’s right. And usually comedy requires that one’s character be funny. TINA FEY, _30 ROCK_, NBC Fey has already won once, in 2008, and she’s hauled

in noms each of the seven years she’s been eligible for _30 Rock_. A farewell win isn’t out of the question. She also happened to be terrific this season, which has to count for something.

Her show is seen by most as yesterday’s Emmy news. For Fey, it’s also never really been about the acting but the writing and producing. JULIA LOUIS-DREYFUS, _VEEP_, HBO With her record 14th

nomination for comedy series acting, Louis-Dreyfus surpassed a lady named Lucille Ball in Emmy annals. Not too shabby. As the category defending champ, she has momentum on her side to take

home another. Someone like Laura Dern or Tina Fey could pull off an upset, however unlikely. Or the fact that she’s won three times could also inspire a backlash, convincing voters that it’s

time to honor someone else. AMY POEHLER, _PARKS AND RECREATION_, NBC A symphony is building to honor Poehler, nominated for the fourth consecutive year. Everyone seems to adore her. She’s

the brainy blonde you root for—and in Emmy terms, she’s overdue. If Poehler is going to win, it will probably have to be for a show that has more cachet than her current one. _Parks_ is

considered funny but not quite funny enough.