You only have to look at the ever-worsening statistics to see how vital and urgent it is that we do whatever we can to slow the spread of COVID-19. There is no serious debate left to be had

over a lockdown, with the evidence stark, unambiguous and mounting by the hour. Take the most basic figure: the proportion of people testing positive. This has started to accelerate wildly.

In London, over 25 percent of those tested are positive. In the southeast, it's nearly 20 percent and it's over 15 percent in the West. Midlands. But even in those other regions

where the numbers testing positive are not so high at the moment, the trend is also up. They are simply a few days behind. This is not about the overall numbers being tested but the

more than a fortnight. Things would likely be far worse if it hadn't been in Tier 4, but the Tier system alone is clearly not doing enough to halt the acceleration of the mutated virus.

That means that in those parts of the country where things are not yet so bad as London and the southeast, they soon will be. Second, this disaster does not include the impact of the

relaxation of rules over Christmas. The figures are going to get a lot worse and there is nothing that can be done about that. But if we act now we can at least start to have an impact on

the weeks after. If we impose tougher measures now that reduce the virus's opportunity to spread, we can hope to save more lives later. Devastatingly for children and many parents, this

has to include schools. The key issue is not that children are in danger or even that teachers are in special danger but that children do spread the virus. Evidence published by SAGE on New

Year's Eve shows that secondary school-age children are eight times more likely than adults to be the first case of Covid in a household and to transmit it to others. As SAGE put it:

"Accumulating evidence is consistent with increased transmission occurring among school children when schools are open multiple data sources show a reduction in transmission in children

following schools closing for half term. There is, of course, light at the end of the tunnel thanks to vaccination. But the journey there is going to be hellish, so we have to do all we can

to minimise its severity and to reduce the time it takes. This means there are two immediate essentials: locking down as hard and fast as possible and speeding up the vaccine programme. One

way of doing this is to lengthen the period between the two injections the vaccine requires. The evidence of its effectiveness shows why this is necessary. One dose alone provides 89

percent effectiveness. Two doses provide 95 percent effectiveness. Lose that extra six percent for a few weeks and you are able to double the number of people who can be vaccinated quickly -

a huge gain. And 89 percent effectiveness would be hailed in any other vaccine as superb. None of the figures I have cited are speculative. They are all hard facts on which the Government

has acted. And yet there remain supposedly serious commentators who continue to assert a variety of mad notions: that Covid is exaggerated, that it's no worse than flu, that the NHS is

pretending to be under pressure, that lockdowns are unnecessary, that letting the virus rip is the best way to beat it. Yet the more they spout this rubbish and the more people listen, the

worse the impact of the pandemic as they prompt others not to take seriously the need for social distancing and safety. That's before we get to the anti-vaxxers whose reckless lies

threaten our way out. In France, where such views have taken hold, a poll found that only 40 percent said they would be willing to be vaccinated. As of yesterday, just 352 people in France

had been vaccinated. The new lockdown will have terrible consequences. But it is the only option we have if a disaster is not to be a calamity.