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MATT HANCOCK HOPES FOR A 'GREAT BRITISH SUMMER' POST-LOCKDOWN Even after the most vulnerable are vaccinated and all over-50s offered the jab, reopening society would see a spike in
hospital admissions and deaths, scientists said. They say most curbs should remain until May before being eased very slowly – and also warned the nation may never achieve Covid herd
immunity. Matt Keeling, professor of populations and disease at Warwick University, said: “Vaccination is not a panacea. RELATED ARTICLES “There are going to be very many individuals who
remain vulnerable, either because they can’t take the vaccine, vaccine hesitancy, or simply because the vaccine doesn’t confer immunity in everybody. “We predict the rapid relaxation of
controls would lead to a huge wave of infection with many associated hospitalisations and deaths. “More gradual relaxation is less risky – you can always roll back if things look bad.” The
stark warning came as Boris Johnson warned the latest variant was much more contagious. Asked about the possibility that England’s lockdown would continue until summer, the Prime Minister
said: “I think it’s too early to say when we’ll be able to lift some of the restrictions. Scientists say reopening society would see a spike in hospital admissions and deaths (Image: Getty)
“We’ll look then [on February 15] at how we’re doing but I think we’re seeing the contagiousness of the new variant that we saw arrive just before Christmas. There’s no doubt it does spread
very fast indeed. “It’s not more deadly but it is much more contagious and the numbers are very great.” The UK recorded 1,290 more virus deaths and 37,892 new cases yesterday. The
Government plans to offer vaccines to over-70s and clinically extremely vulnerable by mid-February. The over-50s will follow in April – and pressure is growing on the PM to start relaxing
lockdown by spring. Imperial College London’s Dr Marc Baguelin, who sits on the modelling arm of Sage, said letting up on controls from May would be the “most optimistic” option to avoid
overwhelming the NHS. “So you have a lot of pressure on hospitals, you will have another wave of some extent. The UK recorded 1,290 more virus deaths and 37,892 new cases yesterday (Image:
Getty ) “At best you will keep on having very, very unsustainable level of pressure on the NHS.” Mark Woolhouse, professor of infectious disease epidemiology, said even with a 90 percent
vaccine uptake in the top priority groups, more than a million would still be at risk of serious illness. He said: “That’s more than have been infected so far. That’s why we might get this
resurgence.” Prof Woolhouse, from Edinburgh University, estimated that with 85 percent jab uptake and delivery of two million doses a week, the UK would be unlikely to reach the level of
herd immunity needed to end the epidemic even after all adults are vaccinated. He added: “Under the most optimistic assumptions about vaccine rollout, coverage and efficacy, it will be
several months, perhaps September, before the herd immunity threshold is reached.” Scientists warned the nation may never achieve Covid herd immunity (Image: Getty ) Given that questions
remain over final vaccine efficacy and take-up, herd immunity may never be won. Prof Woolhouse said: “With less optimistic but perfectly reasonable assumptions, it is possible the herd
immunity threshold will never be reached. In that case, novel coronavirus will almost certainly become endemic.” Chris Hopson, chief executive of trusts group NHS Providers, said hospitals
were concerned about the effect of the faster-spreading variant. He revealed the number of UK virus patients in hospital was now around 39,000 – 80 percent higher than the peak of 21,000
during the first wave. Mr Hopson added: “It’s difficult to predict, but certainly the conversations we were having yesterday suggest there’s probably something like another four or five
weeks of this kind of incredibly intense pressure on hospitals. The PM said it's too early to say when the Government will be able to lift some of the restrictions (Image: Getty) Asked
about reopening of bars and restaurants, he said: “Something of this scale, if it was to happen earlier than May, would generate a bump in transmission, which is already really bad. “I think
there’s a real nervousness that because of how transmissible this new variant is, the slope down once you’ve got over the peak is going to be slower than it was in the first phase.” Experts
behind Imperial College London’s React-1 infection survey said cases appeared to have plateaued at the start of this lockdown but pressure on the NHS would not drop until they were brought
down. However, Public Health England’s weekly surveillance report offered a glimmer of hope. It showed Covid rates fell in all age groups and regions to January 17. The highest case rate
was among people in their 20s at 647.3 per 100,000 but was down from 923.2 the week before. London also saw a big decline. Rates tumbled from 935.1 to 629.7 cases per 100,000 week on week.
The report said there was also signs hospital and intensive care admissions had begun to stabilise. But PHE Covid response director Dr Ruth Milton said: “Admissions to hospital and critical
care remain worrying and are still rising in some parts of the country. This will inevitably lead to more deaths. The need for continued vigilance cannot be stressed enough.” NHS Test and
Trace showed a drop in the number of weekly positive cases for the first time since early December. A total of 330,871 people tested positive in England in the week to January 13, down 15
percent on the previous week. Just 53.7 percent had their results in 24 hours.