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The study destroys the Remainer argument that bad weather harmed their cause, and may have been responsible for the Brexit vote. It was conducted by Essex University academics Patrick Leslie
and Baris Ari, who found: “The rain had the greatest effect on the leave vote. “If the referendum had taken place on a sunny day, there would have been a small increase in the margin of
victory for Vote Leave.” In just one electoral district the study estimates that rain reduced the Brexit vote by 4,618 votes. Powerful thunderstorms on the day of the referendum caused
flooding in Hertfordshire, Essex and Kent. Waterloo station in London temporarily closed after being partially flooded leaving commuters stranded. Remainers have long argued that bad weather
boosted Brexit as it hammered Remain voting regions, including London and Northern Ireland. They point out that London and Northern Ireland both suffered turnouts significantly below the
national average of 72.2 percent. Some commentators also believe the Leave campaign had more passionate supporters who were more likely to vote in the rain. Before the vote Jasper Lawler, a
CMC Markets analyst, argued: “The rainy forecast for Thursday theoretically favours Leave. “Leave voters are thought to be more determined, so more likely to brave bad weather.” However
research by top academic Chris Hanretty following the vote found rain did not hamper turnout, and may have even increased it slightly. He said: “Each extra millimetre of rainfall increases
turnout by 0.15 percentage points.” The Brexit vote was not the first time academics have looked at whether bad weather can determine elections. A study found that rain on the day of the US
presidential election in 2016 gave Republicans a 2.5 percent vote advantage over their Democrat rivals. Similarly, a study published in 2011 found that in the Netherlands heavy rain reduces
turnout by about 1 percent. On 23 June 2016 the British people voted to leave the European Union by a margin of 52 percent to 48 percent, with the 17,410,742 Leave voters giving Brexit the
biggest democratic mandate in UK history.