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Think of the Houston Astros these past few seasons, and you’re probably picturing Jose Altuve, the team’s pint-sized sparkplug of a second baseman, or Carlos Correa, its megatalented
modern-shortstop prototype. Perhaps you’re thinking of all the home runs launched by George Springer in the World Series last fall. Or maybe you enjoy great pitching, and you’re imagining
bearded lefty Dallas Keuchel or rejuvenated legend Justin Verlander. Those are all good options, but the best player on the 2018 Astros — a club demonstrably better than the one that won
last year’s World Series — has been a guy whose name is sometimes lost among the litany of stars on Houston’s roster: Alex Bregman.
In an age of ever-increasing strikeouts, Bregman has become the rare player who walks more than he whiffs, joining an elite club with Mike Trout and Jose Ramirez as power hitters who can
make that claim. While he doesn’t crush the ball quite as hard as other WAR machines like Trout and Mookie Betts, Bregman’s tremendous strike-zone discipline helps him consistently get into
advantageous counts — and punish pitchers when they do have to give him something to hit.
Bregman is also surging at the right time. In addition to his heroics in the All-Star Game in July, he has a 1.030 on-base plus slugging since the beginning of June, which coincides with the
Astros overtaking the surprising Seattle Mariners for first place in the AL West and building their lead to its current five-game state. Among team regulars over the past four weeks,
Bregman has easily been Houston’s top hitter by OPS, and the Astros have otherwise struggled to hit (by their standards) over the same span, so it’s fair to say Bregman has rounded into peak
form when Houston needed him most.
Houston probably didn’t expect to lean so much on Bregman blossoming into a star this year. But it’s a nice luxury to get this kind of season from a guy who might not have been among their
five best players a year ago. (He ranked sixth on the team in WAR last season.)
Nobody is going to feel sorry for Houston, of course, but it’s impressive that the team has still managed to win at a blistering 102-win pace in spite of those potential setbacks.
It hasn’t all been because of Bregman, of course. Verlander, Charlie Morton and Gerrit Cole are each having Cy Young-caliber seasons atop Houston’s rotation, and Keuchel has been his usual
steady self, too. Together, the Astros’ staff is enjoying a season for the ages. Toss in some solid work out of the bullpen by Brad Peacock, who has a 3.09 ERA as a do-everything reliever —
plus, let’s face it, pretty good seasons from the usual suspects (even in “down” years) — and Bregman’s gotten plenty of help carrying the load for Houston.
But that fact that Bregman now officially stands right alongside Altuve, Correa and that stacked starting rotation among the Astros’ signature stars has been an important development for the
defending champs. In a ridiculously top-heavy 2018 American League (hello, Red Sox, Yankees and Indians!), Bregman’s breakout has helped Houston keep pace with the best the game has to
offer, and it’s given them plenty of reason to envision another championship banner hanging in Minute Maid Park.
Averaging together the WAR values found at Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs.
In fact, FanGraphs thinks he’ll end the year with exactly 30 bombs.
Neil Paine was the acting sports editor at FiveThirtyEight. @Neil_Paine