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Over 67,000 volunteers took part in the study in England to examine the levels of COVID-19 in the general population between 19 and 29 October.
There were 1,021 positives from 67,208 swabs, giving a prevalence of 1.72%.
This represents the highest overall prevalence of REACT-1 since it began in May 2020. This is more than 2-fold higher than prevalence in the last report (9 to 27 September 2021), which was
0.83%.
The reproduction rate of the virus (‘R’) is estimated at 1.12.
The highest prevalence was found in South West at 2.18%, increasing almost 4-fold from round 14. Rates are up in every region over this period with the exception of Yorkshire and the Humber.
Highest prevalence was observed in those aged 5 to 12 years at 5.85% and those aged 13 to 17 years at 5.75%.
Prevalence for those aged 45 to 54 and 35 to 44 were the next highest, at 1.53% and 1.48% respectively.
For those aged 65 to 74 years, prevalence was 0.82%. At 75 years and over it was 0.67% – both representing increases of approximately 2-fold from the last report.
In larger households of 5 people or more the rate of infection was 3.68%, compared to 0.78% in single-person households.
Among people who were in contact with a confirmed COVID-19 case, prevalence was 10.1% compared with 0.83% among those without such contact.
The newest tranches of data indicate a recent dip in infections, coinciding with the current half-term school holiday. This mirrors the pattern recorded in 2020 when infections dipped at the
same point in the school calendar (but rose again following half term).
A total of 126 positive samples have been sequenced to date, all of which were Delta variant. Of these, 13 (10.3%) were the AY.4.2 Delta sublineage which has been classified by the UK Health
Security Agency (UKHSA) as a variant under investigation (VUI).
Although the number of hospitalisations and deaths remain lower than in previous peaks, these findings are a powerful reminder that the pandemic is far from over and remains a serious threat
to health and wellbeing. This new data strongly reinforces the need for all eligible age groups to get vaccinated and to take mitigating measures such as wearing a face covering in crowded
places and ensuring good ventilation indoors.
Around 10% of the sequenced positive samples were Delta sublineage AY.4.2. in keeping with the national picture from UKHSA which has classified this as a VUI. UKHSA will continue to monitor
the spread of this variant across the population and investigate the possible reasons for this increase.
Today’s report sends an important message that we need to stay vigilant as we head into the winter months.
Professor Paul Elliott, director of the REACT programme from Imperial’s School of Public Health, said:
These very recent data show that infections are still very high, especially in school-aged children. We continue to find that households with children have higher prevalence of infection,
indicating that children could be driving up infection rates by spreading the virus to others in their homes.
Kelly Beaver, Managing Director, Public Affairs at Ipsos MORI said:
The REACT-1 study was commissioned by the Department of Health and Social Care (DHSC) and is carried out by a world-class team of scientists, clinicians and researchers at Imperial College
London, Imperial College Healthcare NHS Trust and Ipsos MORI.
UKHSA estimates that the vaccination programme in England has prevented hundreds of thousands of hospitalisations and deaths. It is easier than ever to get vaccinated, and the vaccination
programme has been successful in weakening the link between infection, hospitalisation and deaths.