The impact of the global commodity and financial crises on poverty in vietnam

The impact of the global commodity and financial crises on poverty in vietnam

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THE IMPACT OF THE GLOBAL COMMODITY AND FINANCIAL CRISES ON POVERTY IN VIETNAM CONTENTS * Abstract * Citation * Links ABSTRACT Economic growth in Vietnam has been fairly resilient to the


global commodity and financial crises, but it is unclear why. In addition, the impact of the crises on employment and poverty is in dispute. We develop a dynamic computable general


equilibrium model to decompose impacts and estimate distributional outcomes. Our results indicate that the 2008 commodity crisis increased employment and reduced poverty by favouring


labour-intensive exports, especially in agriculture. The 2009 financial crisis reversed these gains. It pushed more than a million workers into unemployment and about 3 million people below


the US$2-a-day poverty line, with the vast majority of these being rural dwellers. The net effect of the crises left Vietnam little changed from a baseline (no crises) path in terms of


aggregate indicators including the poverty rate. An effective stimulus package has the potential to offset one third of the increase in poverty caused by the financial crisis leaving poverty


rates below the (no crises) baseline. CITATION Thurlow, J.; Tarp, F.; McCoy, S.; Manh Hai, N.; Breisinger, C.; Arndt, C. The Impact of the Global Commodity and Financial Crises on Poverty


in Vietnam. UNU-WIDER, Helsinki, Finland (2010) 22 pp. ISBN 978-92-9230-336-5 [WIDER Working Paper No. 2010/98] LINKS The Impact of the Global Commodity and Financial Crises on Poverty in


Vietnam UPDATES TO THIS PAGE Published 1 January 2010 Contents