For the S&P 500 to reach new highs by year-end, the market would need to see unexpected earnings upside or lower interest rates, according to a group of strategists at LPL Financial. The

LPL strategists wrote in a Monday note that they expect tariffs to drag down the S&P 500's earnings per share by 2% to 3%, to roughly $255 in 2025. However, potential tax cuts and

artificial-intelligence advancements might drive earnings per share up to $275 in 2026. In that scenario, investors would need to see an over 22 price-to-earnings ratio to reach new highs by

year-end, with the number standing at 21.4 for now, the strategists said.