'yield curve tsunami' means a painful rise in u. S. Government's cost of capital

'yield curve tsunami' means a painful rise in u. S. Government's cost of capital

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It was last week's surge in long-term Treasury yields -- the rate on the 30-year T-bond saw its biggest weekly jump since 1987, the 10-year saw it's largest since 2001 -- that was credited with persuading President Donald Trump to put a 90-day pause on most of the so-called reciprocal tariffs against U.S. trading partners other thna China. It's clear to see why, said Lisa Shalett, chief investment officer at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, in a Monday note that termed last week's action a "yield curve tsunami." "Although bond market volatility is multidimensional, it’s increasingly clear that proposed budgets, tax bills and debt ceiling negotiations will likely increase US debt. The implication has been Treasury yield-curve steepening, with the front end reasonably anchored and long-term rates surging. The two-year/10-year spread has widened more than 30 basis points in just seven days," she noted. "Such a cost-of-capital increase is critical given US debt refinancing needs," Shalett said. She noted Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's calculation that every basis point on the 10-year Treasury yield equates to $1 billion ayear in interest costs. "Higher rates, credit spreads and recession risks result in higher costs of corporate capital as well," she said.

It was last week's surge in long-term Treasury yields -- the rate on the 30-year T-bond saw its biggest weekly jump since 1987, the 10-year saw it's largest since 2001 -- that was


credited with persuading President Donald Trump to put a 90-day pause on most of the so-called reciprocal tariffs against U.S. trading partners other thna China. It's clear to see why,


said Lisa Shalett, chief investment officer at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, in a Monday note that termed last week's action a "yield curve tsunami." "Although bond


market volatility is multidimensional, it’s increasingly clear that proposed budgets, tax bills and debt ceiling negotiations will likely increase US debt. The implication has been Treasury


yield-curve steepening, with the front end reasonably anchored and long-term rates surging. The two-year/10-year spread has widened more than 30 basis points in just seven days," she


noted. "Such a cost-of-capital increase is critical given US debt refinancing needs," Shalett said. She noted Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's calculation that every basis


point on the 10-year Treasury yield equates to $1 billion ayear in interest costs. "Higher rates, credit spreads and recession risks result in higher costs of corporate capital as


well," she said.