Stochastic seasonality and nonlinear density-dependent factors regulate population size in an african rodent

Stochastic seasonality and nonlinear density-dependent factors regulate population size in an african rodent

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ABSTRACT Ecology has long been troubled by the controversy over how populations are regulated1,2. Some ecologists focus on the role of environmental effects, whereas others argue that


density-dependent feedback mechanisms are central3,4,5,6. The relative importance of both processes is still hotly debated, but clear examples of both processes acting in the same population


are rare7,8. Key-factor analysis (regression of population changes on possible causal factors) and time-series analysis are often used to investigate the presence of density dependence, but


such approaches may be biased and provide no information on actual demographic rates9,10. Here we report on both density-dependent and density-independent effects in a murid rodent pest


species, the multimammate rat _Mastomys natalensis_ (Smith, 1834), using statistical capture–recapture models. Both effects occur simultaneously, but we also demonstrate that they do not


affect all demographic rates in the same way. We have incorporated the obtained estimates of demographic rates in a population dynamics model and show that the observed dynamics are affected


by stabilizing nonlinear density-dependent components coupled with strong deterministic and stochastic seasonal components. Access through your institution Buy or subscribe This is a


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Sampling error as a misleading artifact in “key factor analysis”. _Res. Popul. Ecol._ 13, 28–45 (1971). Article  Google Scholar  Download references ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS We thank E. Johanessen


and D. Hjermann for help in the initial stages of the analyses; B. Grenfell, R. Boonstra, E. Bølviken and N. Yoccoz for discussions and comments; H. Yordanos (Addis Ababa) for providing


working facilities for H.L. and N.C.S. during a retreat in Ethiopia; R.Machang'u, C. A. Sabuni and co-workers; and the Sokoine University of Agriculture. This work was supported by the


European Union, the Belgian Agency for Development Co-operation, the National Fund for Scientific Research (Belgium) (H.L. is a postdoctoral research fellow); and the Norwegian Research


Council (N.C.S.). AUTHOR INFORMATION AUTHORS AND AFFILIATIONS * Danish Pest Infestation Laboratory, Skovbrynet 14, DK-2800, Lyngby, Denmark Herwig Leirs * Division of Zoology, Department of


Biology, University of Oslo, PO Box 1050, Blindern, N-0316, Oslo, Norway Nils Chr. Stenseth * National Biological Service, Patuxent Wildlife Research Center, Laurel, 20708-4017, Maryland,


USA James D. Nichols & James E. Hines * Department of Biology, University of Antwerp (RUCA), Groenenborgerlaan 171, B-2020, Antwerp, Belgium Ron Verhagen & Walter Verheyen Authors *


Herwig Leirs View author publications You can also search for this author inPubMed Google Scholar * Nils Chr. Stenseth View author publications You can also search for this author inPubMed 


Google Scholar * James D. Nichols View author publications You can also search for this author inPubMed Google Scholar * James E. Hines View author publications You can also search for this


author inPubMed Google Scholar * Ron Verhagen View author publications You can also search for this author inPubMed Google Scholar * Walter Verheyen View author publications You can also


search for this author inPubMed Google Scholar CORRESPONDING AUTHOR Correspondence to Nils Chr. Stenseth. RIGHTS AND PERMISSIONS Reprints and permissions ABOUT THIS ARTICLE CITE THIS ARTICLE


Leirs, H., Stenseth, N., Nichols, J. _et al._ Stochastic seasonality and nonlinear density-dependent factors regulate population size in an African rodent. _Nature_ 389, 176–180 (1997).


https://doi.org/10.1038/38271 Download citation * Received: 27 August 1996 * Accepted: 27 June 1997 * Issue Date: 11 September 1997 * DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/38271 SHARE THIS ARTICLE


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