Play all audios:
ABSTRACT It is still possible to limit greenhouse gas emissions to avoid the 2 °C warming threshold for dangerous climate change1. Here we explore the potential role of expanded wind energy
deployment in climate change mitigation efforts. At present, most turbines are located in extra-tropical Asia, Europe and North America2,3, where climate projections indicate continuity of
the abundant wind resource during this century4,5. Scenarios from international agencies indicate that this virtually carbon-free source could supply 10–31% of electricity worldwide by 2050
(refs 2, 6). Using these projections within Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) climate forcing scenarios7, we show that dependent on the
precise RCP followed, pursuing a moderate wind energy deployment plan by 2050 delays crossing the 2 °C warming threshold by 1–6 years. Using more aggressive wind turbine deployment
strategies delays 2 °C warming by 3–10 years, or in the case of RCP4.5 avoids passing this threshold altogether. To maximize these climate benefits, deployment of non-fossil electricity
generation must be coupled with reduced energy use. Access through your institution Buy or subscribe This is a preview of subscription content, access via your institution ACCESS OPTIONS
Access through your institution Subscribe to this journal Receive 12 print issues and online access $209.00 per year only $17.42 per issue Learn more Buy this article * Purchase on
SpringerLink * Instant access to full article PDF Buy now Prices may be subject to local taxes which are calculated during checkout ADDITIONAL ACCESS OPTIONS: * Log in * Learn about
institutional subscriptions * Read our FAQs * Contact customer support SIMILAR CONTENT BEING VIEWED BY OTHERS ESCALATING WIND POWER SHORTAGES DURING HEATWAVES Article Open access 28 March
2025 CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON WIND POWER GENERATION Article 20 October 2020 CO-BENEFITS OF CARBON NEUTRALITY IN ENHANCING AND STABILIZING SOLAR AND WIND ENERGY Article 05 June 2023
REFERENCES * Stocker, T. F. et al. in _Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis_ (ed Stocker, T. F. et al.) 1535 (2013). Google Scholar * OECD/IEA, _Technology Roadmap. Wind Energy_
63 (IEA, 2013). * OECD/IEA, _Technology Roadmap: China Wind Energy Development Roadmap 2050_ 56 (IEA, 2011). * Pryor, S. C. & Barthelmie, R. J. Assessing climate change impacts on the
near-term stability of the wind energy resource over the USA. _Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA_ 108, 8167–8171 (2011). Article CAS Google Scholar * Chen, L., Pryor, S. C. & Li, D. Assessing
the performance of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change AR5 climate models in simulating and projecting wind speeds over China. _J. Geophys. Res._ 117, D24102 (2012). Google Scholar *
Wiser, R. et al. in _Renewable Energy Sources and Climate Change Mitigation: Special Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change_ (ed Edenhofer, O. et al.) 1075 (Cambridge Univ.
Press, 2012). Google Scholar * Van Vuuren, D. P. et al. The representative concentration pathways: An overview. _Climatic Change_ 109, 5–31 (2011). Article Google Scholar * Jacobson, M.
Z. & Archer, C. L. Saturation wind power potential and its implications for wind energy. _Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA_ 109, 15679–15684 (2012). Article CAS Google Scholar * Marvel, K.,
Kravitz, B. & Caldeira, K. Geophysical limits to global wind power. _Nature Clim. Change_ 3, 118–121 (2013). Article Google Scholar * Vidal, O., Goffe, B. & Arndt, N. Metals for a
low-carbon society. _Nature Geosci._ 6, 894–896 (2013). Article CAS Google Scholar * Vose, R. S. et al. Monitoring and understanding changes in extremes: Extratropical storms, winds, and
waves. _Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc._ 95, 377–386 (2014). Article Google Scholar * Pryor, S. C., Barthelmie, R. J. & Schoof, J. T. Past and future wind climates over the contiguous USA
based on the NARCCAP model suite. _J. Geophys. Res._ 117, D19119 (2012). Google Scholar * Markandya, A. & Wilkinson, P. Electricity generation and health. _Lancet_ 370, 979–990 (2007).
Article Google Scholar * Smith, C. M., Barthelmie, R. J. & Pryor, S. C. _In situ_ observations of the influence of a large onshore wind farm on near-surface temperature, turbulence
intensity and wind speed profiles. _Environ. Res. Lett._ 8, 034006 (2013). Article Google Scholar * Vautard, R. et al. Regional climate model simulations indicate limited climatic impacts
by operational and planned European wind farms. _Nature Commun._ 5, 3196 (2014). Article Google Scholar * OECD/IEA, _Key World Energy Statistics_ 82 (2013). * IEA _World
Balance_http://www.iea.org/Sankey/index.html#?c=World&s=Balance (2014). * OECD/IEA, _World Energy Outlook. Ch 6. Renewable Energy Outlook_ 197–232 (International Energy Agency, 2013). *
Davis, S. J., Caldeira, K. & Matthews, H. D. Future CO2 emissions and climate change from existing energy infrastructure. _Science_ 329, 1330–1333 (2010). Article CAS Google Scholar *
OECD/IEA, _Highlights_ 138 (IEA, 2012). * Allen, M. R. et al. Warming caused by cumulative carbon emissions towards the trillionth tonne. _Nature_ 458, 1163–1166 (2009). Article CAS
Google Scholar * Rogelj, J. et al. Emission pathways consistent with a 2 °C global temperature limit. _Nature Clim. Change_ 1, 413–418 (2011). Article Google Scholar * Pacala, S. &
Socolow, R. Stabilization wedges: Solving the climate problem for the next 50 years with current technologies. _Science_ 305, 968–972 (2004). Article CAS Google Scholar * Allen, M. R.
& Stocker, T. F. Impact of delay in reducing carbon dioxide emissions. _Nature Clim. Change_ 4, 23–26 (2014). Article CAS Google Scholar * Peters, G. P. et al. COMMENTARY: The
challenge to keep global warming below 2 degrees C. _Nature Clim. Change_ 3, 4–6 (2013). Article Google Scholar * Masui, T. et al. An emission pathway for stabilization at 6 W m−2
radiative forcing. _Climatic Change_ 109, 59–76 (2011). Article CAS Google Scholar * Riahi, K. et al. RCP 8.5—A scenario of comparatively high greenhouse gas emissions. _Climatic Change_
109, 33–57 (2011). Article CAS Google Scholar * Thomson, A. M. et al. RCP4.5: A pathway for stabilization of radiative forcing by 2100. _Climatic Change_ 109, 77–94 (2011). Article CAS
Google Scholar * Van Vuuren, D. et al. RCP2.6: Exploring the possibility to keep global mean temperature increase below 2 °C. _Climatic Change_ 109, 95–116 (2011). Article Google Scholar
* Global Wind Energy Council, _Global Wind Report: Outlook 2012_ 51 (Greenpeace/Global Wind Energy Council, 2013) http://www.gwec.net/wp-content/uploads/2012/11/GWEO_2012_lowRes.pdf Download
references ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS This work was financially supported in part by NSF# 1067007 and 1019603 and DoE# DE-EE0005379. AUTHOR INFORMATION AUTHORS AND AFFILIATIONS * Sibley School of
Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering, Cornell University, Ithaca, New York 14853, USA R. J. Barthelmie * Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Cornell University, Ithaca, New York
14853, USA S. C. Pryor Authors * R. J. Barthelmie View author publications You can also search for this author inPubMed Google Scholar * S. C. Pryor View author publications You can also
search for this author inPubMed Google Scholar CONTRIBUTIONS R.J.B. and S.C.P. designed the study. R.J.B. carried out most of the data analysis. R.J.B. and S.C.P. co-wrote the paper.
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR Correspondence to R. J. Barthelmie. ETHICS DECLARATIONS COMPETING INTERESTS The authors declare no competing financial interests. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION SUPPLEMENTARY
INFORMATION (PDF 266 KB) RIGHTS AND PERMISSIONS Reprints and permissions ABOUT THIS ARTICLE CITE THIS ARTICLE Barthelmie, R., Pryor, S. Potential contribution of wind energy to climate
change mitigation. _Nature Clim Change_ 4, 684–688 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2269 Download citation * Received: 18 February 2014 * Accepted: 10 May 2014 * Published: 08 June
2014 * Issue Date: August 2014 * DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2269 SHARE THIS ARTICLE Anyone you share the following link with will be able to read this content: Get shareable link
Sorry, a shareable link is not currently available for this article. Copy to clipboard Provided by the Springer Nature SharedIt content-sharing initiative