ABSTRACT While the effects of climatic changes on migration have received widespread public and scientific attention, comparative evidence for their influence on internal migration worldwide

remains scarce. Here we use census-based data from 72 countries (1960–2016) to analyse 107,840 migration flows between subnational regions. We find that increased drought and aridity have a

significant impact on internal migration, particularly in the hyper-arid and arid areas of Southern Europe, South Asia, Africa and the Middle East and South America. Migration patterns are

shaped by the wealth, agricultural dependency and urbanization of both origin and destination areas with migration responses being stronger in rural and predominantly agricultural areas.

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PREDICTORS OF ASYLUM MIGRATION Article Open access 06 April 2021 DRY GROWING SEASONS PREDICTED CENTRAL AMERICAN MIGRATION TO THE US FROM 2012 TO 2018 Article Open access 26 October 2023

CLIMATE CHANGE INCREASES RESOURCE-CONSTRAINED INTERNATIONAL IMMOBILITY Article 07 July 2022 DATA AVAILABILITY The replication data used to generate and visualize the results reported in this

study are available in a Harvard Dataverse repository77. The data analysis was carried out in R. CODE AVAILABILITY The code used to generate and visualize the results reported in this study

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https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/QVLBGN (2024). Download references ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS We are grateful to W. V. Ramírez González for valuable research assistance and to A. Goujon for helpful

comments. R.H., G.A. and R.M. gratefully acknowledge funding from IIASA and the National Member Organizations that support the institute. R.H. acknowledges funding from the EPICC (East

Africa Peru India Climate Capacities) project which is part of the International Climate Initiative. The German Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety

(BMU) supports this initiative on the basis of a decision adopted by the German parliament. R.M. received funding from the European Union (ERC consolidator grant, Population Dynamics under

Global Climate Change (POPCLIMA), project no. 101002973). M.M. and M.P. further acknowledge funding by the Fondazione Invernizzi and G.A. by the National Science Foundation of China, General

Program (project no. 41871142). AUTHOR INFORMATION AUTHORS AND AFFILIATIONS * International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global

Human Capital (IIASA, VID/OeAW, University of Vienna), Laxenburg, Austria Roman Hoffmann, Guy Abel & Raya Muttarak * Department of Sociology, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong,

China Guy Abel * Department of Economics and Management, University of Pavia, Pavia, Italy Maurizio Malpede * RFF-CMCC European Institute on Economics and the Environment (EIEE), Milan,

Italy Maurizio Malpede * Department of Statistical Sciences, University of Bologna, Bologna, Italy Raya Muttarak * Centre for Research in Geography, Resources, Environment, Energy and

Networks (GREEN), Bocconi University, Milan, Italy Marco Percoco Authors * Roman Hoffmann View author publications You can also search for this author inPubMed Google Scholar * Guy Abel View

author publications You can also search for this author inPubMed Google Scholar * Maurizio Malpede View author publications You can also search for this author inPubMed Google Scholar *

Raya Muttarak View author publications You can also search for this author inPubMed Google Scholar * Marco Percoco View author publications You can also search for this author inPubMed 

Google Scholar CONTRIBUTIONS R.H., G.A., M.M., R.M. and M.P. contributed to the conceptualization of the paper, as well as the development of its methodology and research design. G.A., R.H.

and M.M. were responsible for data preparation and management. R.H. conducted the analysis and prepared the display items. R.H. also drafted the original version of the paper. All authors

participated in the revision and editing process. R.H. administered and managed the project. CORRESPONDING AUTHOR Correspondence to Roman Hoffmann. ETHICS DECLARATIONS COMPETING INTERESTS

The authors declare no competing interests. PEER REVIEW PEER REVIEW INFORMATION _Nature Climate Change_ thanks Giorgio Fagiolo and the other, anonymous, reviewer(s) for their contribution to

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EXTENDED DATA EXTENDED DATA FIG. 1 COUNTRIES AND SUBNATIONAL REGIONS INCLUDED IN THE CENSUS MIGRATION DATABASE. The map shows the boundaries of the subnational regions, which form the basis

of the migration flow estimation. The inlay to the right shows exemplary migration flows between four regions in China. EXTENDED DATA FIG. 2 TIMING OF CENSUSES ACROSS COUNTRIES AND WORLD

REGIONS COVERED IN THE MIGRATION DATASET. Data are available for countries in North America, Central America and the Caribbean, South America, Africa and the Middle East, South Asia, Est

Asia and Pacific, Northeastern Europe and Central Asia, and Southern Europe. The unbalanced longitudinal data contain information for 72 countries from 1960 to 2016. EXTENDED DATA FIG. 3

CIRCULAR MIGRATION PLOTS SHOWING MIGRATION FLOWS BETWEEN SUBNATIONAL REGIONS IN SIX EXEMPLARY COUNTRIES. The migration flows were estimated using the latest available census. Panels A Spain,

B China, C Brazil, D Tanzania, E USA, F Russia. Subnational regions in the USA and Russia were further aggregated due to the large number of regions. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION SUPPLEMENTARY

INFORMATION Supplementary Sections A–E, Figs. 1–11, Tables 1–40 and references. REPORTING SUMMARY RIGHTS AND PERMISSIONS Springer Nature or its licensor (e.g. a society or other partner)

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solely governed by the terms of such publishing agreement and applicable law. Reprints and permissions ABOUT THIS ARTICLE CITE THIS ARTICLE Hoffmann, R., Abel, G., Malpede, M. _et al._

Drought and aridity influence internal migration worldwide. _Nat. Clim. Chang._ 14, 1245–1253 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-024-02165-1 Download citation * Received: 02 January 2024

* Accepted: 19 September 2024 * Published: 15 October 2024 * Issue Date: December 2024 * DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-024-02165-1 SHARE THIS ARTICLE Anyone you share the following

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