ABSTRACT Tropical coastal communities are highly reliant on coral reefs, which provide nutrition and employment for millions of people. Climate-driven coral bleaching events are

fundamentally changing coral reef ecosystems and are predicted to reduce productivity of coral reef fish and fisheries, with significant implications for food security and livelihoods. Yet

evidence of long-term bleaching impacts on coral reef fishery productivity is lacking. Here, we analyse over 20 years of fish abundance, catch and habitat data to assess long-term impacts of

climate-driven coral mass mortality and regime shifts on nearshore artisanal coral reef fisheries in the Seychelles. Contrary to expectations, total catch and mean catch rates were

and local market supply chains. Although coral bleaching increased fishery dependence on herbivore species, our results show that climate-impacted reefs can still provide livelihoods and

fish protein for coastal communities. Access through your institution Buy or subscribe This is a preview of subscription content, access via your institution ACCESS OPTIONS Access through

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customer support SIMILAR CONTENT BEING VIEWED BY OTHERS FISH COMMUNITY STRUCTURE AND DYNAMICS ARE INSUFFICIENT TO MEDIATE CORAL RESILIENCE Article 03 October 2022 SUSTAINED PRODUCTIVITY AND

THE PERSISTENCE OF CORAL REEF FISHERIES Article 12 June 2023 TOWARDS PROCESS-ORIENTED MANAGEMENT OF TROPICAL REEFS IN THE ANTHROPOCENE Article Open access 14 November 2022 DATA AVAILABILITY

All analyses were conducted in R 3.4.254 using _mgcv_51 and _vegan_55. Model predictions and R analysis scripts are provided at github.com/jpwrobinson/prod-instability. The fishery-dependent

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https://CRAN.Rproject.org/package=vegan Download references ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS This paper is dedicated to the memory of Edwin Mark Grandcourt, a pioneering Seychellois fisheries scientist who

made significant contributions to establishing the underwater dataset and catch assessment surveys used in this paper, which now help shape our understanding of coral reef fisheries in

Seychelles and across the world. This research was supported by the Royal Society (grant nos. CH160077 and UF140691), the Leverhulme Trust (grant no. F/00 125/M) and the Australian Research

Council (grant nos. DP1094932 and DE130101705). We thank the fisheries observers and data technicians of SFA for data collection, and Seychelles Marine Parks Authority, Nature Seychelles and

Global Vision International for field assistance. AUTHOR INFORMATION AUTHORS AND AFFILIATIONS * Lancaster Environment Centre, Lancaster University, Lancaster, UK James P. W. Robinson & 

Nicholas A. J. Graham * Department of Biodiversity, Conservation and Attractions: Marine Science Program, Kensington, Western Australia, Australia Shaun K. Wilson * Oceans Institute,

University of Western Australia, Crawley, Western Australia, Australia Shaun K. Wilson * Ministry of Finance, Trade, Investment and Economic Planning, Victoria, Seychelles Jan Robinson *

Seychelles Fishing Authority, Mahe, Seychelles Calvin Gerry, Juliette Lucas, Cindy Assan & Rodney Govinden * International Council for the Exploration of the Sea, Copenhagen, Denmark

Simon Jennings Authors * James P. W. Robinson View author publications You can also search for this author inPubMed Google Scholar * Shaun K. Wilson View author publications You can also

search for this author inPubMed Google Scholar * Jan Robinson View author publications You can also search for this author inPubMed Google Scholar * Calvin Gerry View author publications You

can also search for this author inPubMed Google Scholar * Juliette Lucas View author publications You can also search for this author inPubMed Google Scholar * Cindy Assan View author

publications You can also search for this author inPubMed Google Scholar * Rodney Govinden View author publications You can also search for this author inPubMed Google Scholar * Simon

Jennings View author publications You can also search for this author inPubMed Google Scholar * Nicholas A. J. Graham View author publications You can also search for this author inPubMed 

Google Scholar CONTRIBUTIONS J.P.W.R., S.K.W. and N.A.J.G. conceived the study and wrote the first draft of the manuscript, with substantial input from S.J. Underwater ecological data were

collected by S.K.W., S.J. and N.A.J.G. C.G., J.R., J.L., C.A. and R.G. designed and managed the Seychelles fisheries monitoring programme. J.P.W.R. conducted all statistical analyses.

CORRESPONDING AUTHOR Correspondence to James P. W. Robinson. ETHICS DECLARATIONS COMPETING INTERESTS The authors declare no competing interests. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PUBLISHER’S NOTE:

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Robinson, J.P.W., Wilson, S.K., Robinson, J. _et al._ Productive instability of coral reef fisheries after climate-driven regime shifts. _Nat Ecol Evol_ 3, 183–190 (2019).

https://doi.org/10.1038/s41559-018-0715-z Download citation * Received: 23 May 2018 * Accepted: 03 October 2018 * Published: 12 November 2018 * Issue Date: February 2019 * DOI:

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