The next phase of the energy transition and its implications for research and policy

The next phase of the energy transition and its implications for research and policy

Play all audios:

Loading...

ABSTRACT In many places, the electricity sector is transitioning towards greater share of renewable energy technologies. In the initial phase of the transition, a primary concern for


research and policy was to establish renewables as technically and economically viable options. Today, the situation is different: renewables are diffusing rapidly in many electricity grids,


thereby generating major changes for existing technologies, organizations and infrastructures. In this new phase of the energy transition, we do not just witness an acceleration of earlier


transition dynamics, but also qualitatively new phenomena. These include a complex interaction of multiple technologies, the decline of established business models and technologies,


intensified economic and political struggles of key actors such as utility companies and industry associations, and major challenges for the overall functioning and performance of the


electricity sector (for example, when integrating renewables). Drawing on a transition studies perspective, this paper compares the two phases and discusses implications for research and


policymaking. Access through your institution Buy or subscribe This is a preview of subscription content, access via your institution ACCESS OPTIONS Access through your institution Access


Nature and 54 other Nature Portfolio journals Get Nature+, our best-value online-access subscription $29.99 / 30 days cancel any time Learn more Subscribe to this journal Receive 12 digital


issues and online access to articles $119.00 per year only $9.92 per issue Learn more Buy this article * Purchase on SpringerLink * Instant access to full article PDF Buy now Prices may be


subject to local taxes which are calculated during checkout ADDITIONAL ACCESS OPTIONS: * Log in * Learn about institutional subscriptions * Read our FAQs * Contact customer support SIMILAR


CONTENT BEING VIEWED BY OTHERS THE ROLE OF RENEWABLES FOR RAPID TRANSITIONING OF THE POWER SECTOR ACROSS STATES IN INDIA Article Open access 21 September 2022 THE ROLE OF ELECTRIC GRID


RESEARCH IN ADDRESSING CLIMATE CHANGE Article 21 August 2024 AN ASSESSMENT OF ENERGY SYSTEM TRANSFORMATION PATHWAYS TO ACHIEVE NET-ZERO CARBON DIOXIDE EMISSIONS IN SWITZERLAND Article Open


access 08 May 2023 REFERENCES * Mitchell, C. Momentum is increasing towards a flexible electricity system based on renewables. _Nat. Energy_ 1, 15030 (2016). Article  Google Scholar  *


Geels, F. W. et al. The enactment of socio-technical transition pathways: A reformulated typology and a comparative multi-level analysis of the German and UK low-carbon electricity


transitions (1990-2014). _Res. Pol._ 45, 896–913 (2016). Article  Google Scholar  * Markard, J. & Hoffmann, V. H. Analysis of complementarities: Framework and examples from the energy


transition. _Technol. Forecast. Soc._ 111, 63–75 (2016). Article  Google Scholar  * Markard, J., Raven, R. & Truffer, B. Sustainability Transitions: An emerging field of research and its


prospects. _Res. Pol._ 41, 955–967 (2012). Article  Google Scholar  * Geels, F. W., Sovacool, B. K., Schwanen, T. & Sorrell, S. Sociotechnical transitions for deep decarbonization.


_Science_ 357, 1242–1244 (2017). Article  Google Scholar  * Smith, A., Voß, J.-P. & Grin, J. Innovation studies and sustainability transitions: The allure of the multi-level perspective


and its challenges. _Res. Pol._ 39, 435–448 (2010). Article  Google Scholar  * Geels, F. W., Berkhout, F. & van Vuuren, D. P. Bridging analytical approaches for low-carbon transitions.


_Nat. Clim. Change_ 6, 576 (2016). Article  Google Scholar  * Kern, F. & Markard, J. in _The Palgrave Handbook of the International Political Economy of Energy_ (eds Van de Graf, T. et


al.) Ch. 12, 291–318 (Palgrave Macmillan UK, London, 2016). * Stirling, A. Transforming power: Social science and the politics of energy choices. _Energy Res. Soc. Sci_ 1, 83–95 (2014).


Article  Google Scholar  * Rittel, H. W. J. & Webber, M. M. Dilemmas in a general theory of planning. _Pol. Sci._ 4, 155–169 (1973). Article  Google Scholar  * Mowery, D. C., Nelson, R.


R. & Martin, B. R. Technology policy and global warming: Why new policy models are needed (or why putting new wine in old bottles won't work). _Res. Pol._ 39, 1011–1023 (2010).


Article  Google Scholar  * Shove, E. & Walker, G. CAUTION! Transitions ahead: politics, practice and sustainable transition management. _Environ. Planning A_ 39, 763–770 (2007). Article


  Google Scholar  * Garud, R., Gehman, J. & Karnoe, P. in _Research in the Sociology of Work: Institutions and Entrepreneurship_ Vol. 21 (eds Sine, W. D. & David, R.) 51–93 (Emerald


Group Publishing Ltd, Bingley, 2010). * Rosenbloom, D., Berton, H. & Meadowcroft, J. Framing the sun: A discursive approach to understanding multi-dimensional interactions within


socio-technical transitions through the case of solar electricity in Ontario, Canada. _Res. Pol._ 45, 1275–1290 (2016). Article  Google Scholar  * Bergek, A. et al. Technological innovation


systems in contexts: Conceptualizing contextual structures and interaction dynamics. _Environ. Innov. Soc. Trans._ 16, 51–64 (2015). Article  Google Scholar  * Coenen, L., Benneworth, P.


& Truffer, B. Towards a spatial perspective on sustainability transitions. _Res. Pol._ 41, 968–979 (2012). Article  Google Scholar  * Grubler, A. Energy transitions research: Insights


and cautionary tales. _Energy Policy_ 50, 8–16 (2012). Article  Google Scholar  * van den Bergh, J. C. J. M. Policies to enhance economic feasibility of a sustainable energy transition.


_Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA_ 110, 2436–2437 (2013). Article  Google Scholar  * Rotmans, J., Kemp, R. & van Asselt, M. More evolution than revolution. Transition management in public


policy. _Foresight_ 3, 15–31 (2001). Article  Google Scholar  * Raven, R. Niche accumulation and hybridisation strategies in transition processes towards a sustainable energy system: An


assessment of differences and pitfalls. _Energy Policy_ 35, 2390–2400 (2007). Article  Google Scholar  * Musiolik, J., Markard, J. & Hekkert, M. Networks and network resources in


technological innovation systems: Towards a conceptual framework for system building. _Technol. Forecast. Soc._ 79, 1032–1048 (2012). Article  Google Scholar  * Stenzel, T. & Frenzel, A.


Regulating technological change—The strategic reactions of utility companies towards subsidy policies in the German, Spanish and UK electricity markets. _Energy Policy._ 36, 2645–2657


(2008). Article  Google Scholar  * van Lente, H. & Bakker, S. Competing expectations: the case of hydrogen storage technologies. _Technol. Anal. Strat. Manage._ 22, 693–709 (2010).


Article  Google Scholar  * _Global Wind Report 2015 -_ Annual market update (Global Wind Energy Council, Brussels, 2016). * _Snapshot of Global Photovoltaics Markets_ (International Energy


Agency, 2017). * Kungl, G. Stewards or sticklers for change? Incumbent energy providers and the politics of the German energy transition. _Energy Res. Soc. Sci._ 8, 13–23 (2015). Article 


Google Scholar  * Lauber, V. & Jacobsson, S. The politics and economics of constructing, contesting and restricting socio-political space for renewables - The German Renewable Energy


Act. _Environ. Innov. Soc. Trans._ 18, 147–163 (2016). Article  Google Scholar  * Bird, L., Milligan, M. & Lew, D. _Integrating Variable Renewable Energy: Challenges and Solutions_.


(National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Golden, Colorado, 2013). Book  Google Scholar  * Sutherland, L.-A., Peter, S. & Zagata, L. Conceptualising multi-regime interactions: The role of


the agriculture sector in renewable energy transitions. _Res. Pol._ 44, 1543–1554 (2015). Article  Google Scholar  * Erlinghagen, S. & Markard, J. Smart grids and the transformation of


the electricity sector: ICT firms as potential catalysts for sectoral change. _Energy Policy_ 51, 895–906 (2012). Article  Google Scholar  * Dijk, M., Wells, P. & Kemp, R. Will the


momentum of the electric car last? Testing an hypothesis on disruptive innovation. _Technol. Forecast. Soc._ 105, 77–88 (2016). Article  Google Scholar  * Rosenbloom, D. Pathways: An


emerging concept for the theory and governance of low-carbon transitions. _Glob. Environ. Chang._ 43, 37–50 (2017). Article  Google Scholar  * Sandén, B. A. & Hillman, K. M. A framework


for analysis of multi-mode interaction among technologies with examples from the history of alternative transport fuels in Sweden. _Res. Pol._ 40, 403–414 (2011). Article  Google Scholar  *


Stephan, A., Schmidt, T. S., Bening, C. R. & Hoffmann, V. H. The sectoral configuration of technological innovation systems: Patterns of knowledge development and diffusion in the


lithium-ion battery technology in Japan. _Res. Pol._ 46, 709–723 (2017). Article  Google Scholar  * Lamberg, J.-A., Ojala, J. & Peltoniemi, M. Thinking about industry decline: A


qualitative meta-analysis and future research directions. _Bus. Hist._ 60, 127–156 (2018). Article  Google Scholar  * Turnheim, B. & Geels, F. W. Regime destabilisation as the flipside


of energy transitions: Lessons from the history of the British coal industry (1913–1997). _Energy Policy_ 50, 35–49 (2012). Article  Google Scholar  * Hess, D. J. Sustainability transitions:


A political coalition perspective. _Res. Pol._ 43, 278–283 (2014). Article  Google Scholar  * Markard, J., Suter, M. & Ingold, K. Socio-technical transitions and policy change –


Advocacy coalitions in Swiss energy policy. _Environ. Innov. Soc. Trans._ 18, 215–237 (2016). Article  Google Scholar  * Voß, J.-P., Bauknecht, D. & Kemp, R. _Reflexive Governance for


Sustainable Development_ (Edward Elgar, Cheltenham, 2006). * Stirling, A. Pluralising progress: From integrative transitions to transformative diversity. _Environ. Innov. Soc. Trans._ 1,


82–88 (2011). Article  Google Scholar  * Jacobsson, S. & Bergek, A. Innovation system analyses and sustainability transitions: Contributions and suggestions for research. _Environ.


Innov. Soc. Trans._ 1, 41–57 (2011). Article  Google Scholar  * Kivimaa, P. & Kern, F. Creative destruction or mere niche support? Innovation policy mixes for sustainability transitions.


_Res. Pol._ 45, 205–217 (2016). Article  Google Scholar  * Rogge, K. S. & Reichardt, K. Policy mixes for sustainability transitions: An extended concept and framework for analysis.


_Res. Pol._ 45, 1620–1635 (2016). Article  Google Scholar  * Stegmaier, P., Kuhlmann, S. & Visser, V. R. in _The Governance of Socio-Technical Systems_ (eds Borrás, S. & Edler, J.)


Ch. 6, 111–131 (Edward Elgar, Cheltenham, 2014). * Stirling, A. Transforming power: Social science and the politics of energy choices. _Energy Res. Soc. Sci._ 1, 83–95 (2014). Article 


Google Scholar  * Sovacool, B. K. How long will it take? Conceptualizing the temporal dynamics of energy transitions. _Energy Res. Soc. Sci._ 13, 202–215 (2016). Article  Google Scholar  *


Binz, C. & Truffer, B. Global Innovation Systems—A conceptual framework for innovation dynamics in transnational contexts. _Res. Pol._ 46, 1284–1298 (2017). Article  Google Scholar  *


_Electricity Information 2017_. III–157, 213, 462, 517 (IEA, 2017). * _Electric Generation Capacity & Energy_ (California Energy Commission, accessed 12 April 2018);


http://www.energy.ca.gov/almanac/electricity_data/electric_generation_capacity.html * _Stromerzeugung nach Energieträgern 1990-2017_ (accessed 12 April 2018); https://ag-energiebilanzen.de/


Download references ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS This research has received funding from the Research Council of Norway (Energix program, Project ‘Integration of Power Transmission Grids’, grant no.


243994) and it is also part of the activities of the Swiss Competence Center for Energy Research (SCCER CREST), financially supported by Innosuisse under grant no. KTI 1155000154. I thank V.


Hoffmann, A. D. Andersen, B. Girod, F. Kern, C. Knoeri, M. Schwartz and B. Turnheim for their comments. AUTHOR INFORMATION AUTHORS AND AFFILIATIONS * Department of Management, Technology


and Economics, Group for Sustainability and Technology, Swiss Federal Institute of Technology Zurich (ETH Zurich), Zürich, Switzerland Jochen Markard Authors * Jochen Markard View author


publications You can also search for this author inPubMed Google Scholar CORRESPONDING AUTHOR Correspondence to Jochen Markard. ETHICS DECLARATIONS COMPETING INTERESTS The author declares no


competing interests. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PUBLISHER’S NOTE: Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations. RIGHTS


AND PERMISSIONS Reprints and permissions ABOUT THIS ARTICLE CITE THIS ARTICLE Markard, J. The next phase of the energy transition and its implications for research and policy. _Nat Energy_


3, 628–633 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41560-018-0171-7 Download citation * Received: 23 October 2017 * Accepted: 30 April 2018 * Published: 28 May 2018 * Issue Date: August 2018 * DOI:


https://doi.org/10.1038/s41560-018-0171-7 SHARE THIS ARTICLE Anyone you share the following link with will be able to read this content: Get shareable link Sorry, a shareable link is not


currently available for this article. Copy to clipboard Provided by the Springer Nature SharedIt content-sharing initiative