ABSTRACT Ocean melting has thinned Antarctica’s ice shelves at an increasing rate over the past two decades, leading to loss of grounded ice. The Ross Ice Shelf is currently close to steady

state but geological records indicate that it can disintegrate rapidly, which would accelerate grounded ice loss from catchments equivalent to 11.6 m of global sea level rise. Here, we use

data from the ROSETTA-Ice airborne survey and ocean simulations to identify the principal threats to Ross Ice Shelf stability. We locate the tectonic boundary between East and West

Antarctica from magnetic anomalies and use gravity data to generate a new high-resolution map of sub-ice-shelf bathymetry. The tectonic imprint on the bathymetry constrains sub-ice-shelf

melt rates in this region using ROSETTA-Ice radar data. Our findings highlight the significance of both the tectonic framework and local ocean–atmosphere exchange processes near the ice

front in determining the future of the Antarctic Ice Sheet. Access through your institution Buy or subscribe This is a preview of subscription content, access via your institution ACCESS

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FAQs * Contact customer support SIMILAR CONTENT BEING VIEWED BY OTHERS RAPID GLACIER RETREAT RATES OBSERVED IN WEST ANTARCTICA Article 13 January 2022 ANTARCTIC ICE-SHELF ADVANCE DRIVEN BY

ANOMALOUS ATMOSPHERIC AND SEA-ICE CIRCULATION Article 05 May 2022 WARMING BENEATH AN EAST ANTARCTIC ICE SHELF DUE TO INCREASED SUBPOLAR WESTERLIES AND REDUCED SEA ICE Article Open access 21

September 2023 DATA AVAILABILITY The ROSETTA-Ice airborne survey data are available from http://www.ldeo.columbia.edu/polar-geophysics-group/data. CODE AVAILABILITY The code used to generate

ocean simulations can be accessed at https://www.myroms.org/svn/src/. Modifications to the standard code used and ancillary input data are available on request from [email protected].

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the 109th Airlift Wing of the New York Air National Guard. We thank the United States Antarctic Program and staff of McMurdo Station seasons 2014–2018 and J. DeTemple during the development

of the IcePod. This work was supported by the National Science Foundation 0958658, 1443534, 1443498, 1443677, 1443497 and 1341688, NASA NNX16AJ65G, the Moore Foundation, the Old York

Foundation, the New Zealand Ministry of Business Innovation and Employment contract C05X1001, and New Zealand Antarctic Research Institute (NZARI no. 2014-11) funded Aotearoa New Zealand

Ross Ice Shelf Programme (F.C.T. and G.O’B.). Any use of trade, firm, or product names is for descriptive purposes only and does not imply endorsement by the United States Government. AUTHOR

INFORMATION AUTHORS AND AFFILIATIONS * Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, Palisades, NY, USA K. J. Tinto, I. Das, D. F. Porter, N. P. Frearson, C. Bertinato, A.

Boghosian, S. I. Cordero, T. Dhakal, L. Dong, C. D. Gustafson, C. Locke, J. J. Spergel, S. E. Starke, M. G. Wearing & R. E. Bell * Earth & Space Research, Corvallis, OR, USA L.

Padman * Colorado College, Colorado Springs, CO, USA C. S. Siddoway, S. Keeshin, A. Lockett & M. Tankersley * Earth & Space Research, Seattle, WA, USA S. R. Springer & S. L.

Howard * Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla, CA, USA H. A. Fricker, C. Mosbeux & M. K. Becker * GNS Science, Lower Hutt, New Zealand F.

Caratori Tontini & G. O’Brien * Colorado School of Mines, Golden, CO, USA M. R. Siegfried * Dynamic Gravity Systems, Broomfield, CO, USA N. Brady * U. S. Geological Survey, Denver, CO,

USA B. L. Burton * Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA W. Chu Authors * K. J. Tinto View author publications You can also search for this author inPubMed Google Scholar * L. Padman View

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search for this author inPubMed Google Scholar * R. E. Bell View author publications You can also search for this author inPubMed Google Scholar CONTRIBUTIONS K.J.T., R.E.B., L.P., C.S.S.,

S.R.S., H.A.F., I.D. and F.C.T. conceived the experiment and analysed the data; D.F.P. contributed to oceanography; M.R.S. and C.M. contributed to glaciology; S.L.H. contributed to

developing and running the ocean model simulations; N.P.F., C.B., T.D., W.C. and L.D. developed the IcePod instrument suite and acquired the data; S.K. analysed radar data; M.T. contributed

to the bathymetry model; M.K.B., A.B., N.B., B.L.B., S.I.C., C.D.G., C.L., A.L., G.O’B., J.J.S., S.E.S. and M.G.W. acquired and processed data in the field. CORRESPONDING AUTHOR

Correspondence to K. J. Tinto. ETHICS DECLARATIONS COMPETING INTERESTS N.B. is director of operations of Dynamic Gravity Systems, provider of one of the gravity instruments used in the

ROSETTA-Ice surveys. The remaining authors declare no competing interests. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PUBLISHER’S NOTE: Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in

published maps and institutional affiliations. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION Supplementary Figs. 1–6. SUPPLEMENTARY VIDEO 1 Temporal evolution of High-Salinity Shelf

Water. SUPPLEMENTARY VIDEO 2 Temporal evolution of modified Circumpolar Deep Water. SUPPLEMENTARY VIDEO 3 Temporal evolution of Antarctic Surface Water. RIGHTS AND PERMISSIONS Reprints and

permissions ABOUT THIS ARTICLE CITE THIS ARTICLE Tinto, K.J., Padman, L., Siddoway, C.S. _et al._ Ross Ice Shelf response to climate driven by the tectonic imprint on seafloor bathymetry.

_Nat. Geosci._ 12, 441–449 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-019-0370-2 Download citation * Received: 08 November 2018 * Accepted: 08 April 2019 * Published: 27 May 2019 * Issue Date:

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