ABSTRACT East Asian marginal seas (EAMS) circulation is closely configurated by sea level rise during the last deglaciation. Here, we perform simulations to reconstruct the EAMS circulation

on the basis of sea levels from −90 to 0 m of the present, using a high-resolution regional ocean circulation model under present-day fixed surface and lateral boundary conditions. Our

results show that the EAMS circulation underwent twice abrupt changes: a rapid initiation of its modern structure when sea level rise exceeded −40 m, followed by a temporary overshoot of the

Japan-Sea throughflows at −5 m. These nonlinear processes are caused by the opening of the Soya Strait and thus formation of the modern EAMS-circulation structure, and a transient absence

NORTHWESTERN PACIFIC MARGINAL SEAS Article Open access 26 August 2023 DELAYED ANTARCTIC SEA-ICE DECLINE IN HIGH-RESOLUTION CLIMATE CHANGE SIMULATIONS Article Open access 02 February 2022

SEA-ICE RETREAT SUGGESTS RE-ORGANIZATION OF WATER MASS TRANSFORMATION IN THE NORDIC AND BARENTS SEAS Article Open access 10 January 2022 INTRODUCTION Extraordinary rise of sea level is a

most challenging climatic effect, as a consequence of the on-going global warming1,2,3. According to paleoceanographic evidences, sea level was even higher than the modern condition by a few

meters during the last interglacial (~ 130–115 ka BP), as a heritage of naturally deglacial sea level rise4,5. On the glacial-interglacial time scales, the global ocean has tempered the

effect of sea level oscillations by over 100 m4, in particular for the marginal seas via the processes of land-sea evolution. This is a typical circumstance for the development of

circulation in the East Asian marginal seas (EAMS, one of globally largest marginal-sea region) since the last deglaciation (Fig. 1 and Supplementary fig. 1). Although studies have linked

the deglacial evolution in the EAMS circulation to the coeval climatic processes of e.g., Asian Monsoons6,7,8 and the Kuroshio Current system9,10,11, the impact of changing bathymetry and

the corresponding land-sea masks on the circulation remains unresolved. In this study, we hypothesize the existence of abrupt-change points in the relationship between sea levels and the

EAMS circulation, leading to nonlinear evolution in the EAMS circulation from the last deglaciation to the present, based on modelling simulations and intercomparison with existing

paleoceanographic evidences. Note that here we only test how the changes in sea level and the associated opening of certain key straits would affect the EASM, thus we applied fixed

present-day surface and lateral boundary conditions. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION MODELLED EAMS CIRCULATIONS BASED ON DIFFERENT SEA LEVELS Our modelling results show abrupt change in the EAMS

circulation two times: when sea level rises beyond −40 and −5 m (Fig. 2a–d). Once the sea level becomes higher than −40 m, the Soya Strait opens as an oceanic gateway, and triggers the

formation of the so-called ‘Taiwan-Tsushima-Tsugaru & Soya’ (3T-S) circulation system in the modern ocean12,13 (Fig. 1c and Supplementary figs. 2, 3). Specifically, on the basis of the

open Soya Strait and the established 3T-S circulation system, the Kuroshio Current water also enters the EAMS via the Taiwan Strait besides via the deep-ocean channel east of Taiwan Island.

Then, the Taiwan-Strait throughflow continuously extends northward in the EAMS and reaches the TKS, activating a TKS throughflow into the Sea of Japan. In the meantime, the water export from

the Sea of Japan to the North Pacific Ocean via the Tsugaru Strait is also initialized. Therefore, our modelling results suggest that the sea level rise across −40 m exists as an

abrupt-change point in the relationship between sea level rise and the EAMS circulation evolution since the last deglacition by opening the Soya Strait in a classic ‘ocean-gateway effect’14.

Along further sea level rise from −40 to 0 m, the EAMS circulation becomes stronger generally in an almost continuous manner (Fig. 2a–d). Here, this constitutes an invigoration process in

the EAMS circulation, linked to the widening and deepening of the Taiwan Strait along the sea level rise. It thus results in the development of the Taiwan-Strait throughflow and also its

downstream including the throughflows via the TKS, Tsugaru Strait and Soya Strait, in the form of an intensifying ‘ocean-gateway effect’ at the Taiwan Strait (Fig. 2a). Notably, the

overflows between the Sea of Japan and the North Pacific Ocean, including the throughflows via the TKS, Tsugaru Strait and Soya Strait, commonly exhibit a prominent, surprising overshoot

towards the end of our simulated deglacial sea level rise, at around −5 m sea level (Figs. 2 and 3). According to our modelling results, a replacement of the Kuroshio Large-Meander15,16 like

(KLM-like) circulation to a relatively straighter current along the southeastern coast of Japan (Fig. 3). Such shift from KLM-like flow to the along-shore current virtually occured as an

acceleration in the along-shore current at the southern coast of Japan. Following the around-island integral constraint within the ‘Island rule’ theory17,18 with respect to the Islands of

Japan, the TKS throughflow at the coast of the other side, i.e., the northern side, thus intensified, as the response (Fig. 3 and Supplementary fig. 5). Here, our modelling results are also

in line with paleoceanographic evidence for the onset of an overshoot in the TKS throughflow at about −5 m sea level19 (Fig. 2g). Overall, at around −5 m sea level, on top of the

continuously growing ‘ocean-gateway effect’ with deglacial sea level rise from −40 to 0 m, the transient appearance of the around-island integral constraint triggers the temporary overshoot

in the TKS throughflow into the Sea of Japan. Likewise, because of the necessity to maintain mass-balance, the outflows via the Tsugaru Strait and Soya Strait from the Sea of Japan to the

North Pacific also present an overshoot (Fig. 2b–d). This process thereby constitutes a maximum in circulation intensity through the EAMS within the Holocene. Importantly, in the modelling

experiment of −5 m sea level, the along-shore current in the Pacific south to the Japan Islands is characterised by a quasi-stationary field of eddies with dual cores (Fig. 3). This is

distinct from the prevailing condition of a triple-core, quasi-stationary eddy field, coherent with the KLM-like circulation in the simulations with sea levels between -90 and 0 m. Based on

similar variability in the modern ocean circulation, albeit on shorter time scales, previous physical oceanographic studies16,20 have assigned such changes in the western North Pacific

quasi-stationary eddy configuration as a cause for the shift from the KLM to the along-shore current setting. Here, our modelling results, in line with paleoceanographic reconstructions19,

provide evidence for the hypothesis that a −5 m sea level with a corresponding land-sea mask enables the condition for the existence of quasi-stationary eddies with dual cores, in tandem

with the presence of a linear, along-shore Kuroshio Current system at the southern coast of Japan. Then, the actually acclerated along-shore current at the southern coast of Japan leads to

the occurrence of overshoot intensity in the TKS throughflow, following the around-island integral constraint. INTERCOMPARISON WITH PALEOCEANOGRAPHIC EVIDENCES On the basis of radiolarian

species assembleges from a core near the Tsushima-Korea Strait (TKS) in the southern Sea of Japan, a recent study21 illustrates that the TKS throughflow started to increase from near-absence

after 10 ka BP, before it decreases again from 7 to 0 ka BP (Fig. 2f and Supplementary fig. 7). Once transferred to sea level development between 14 and 0 ka BP22, this indicates an

initiation of the TKS throughflow since sea levels higher than −40 m, and a continuous strengthening along sea level rise from −40 to −5 m, followed by a weakening from −5 m sea level to the

present (Fig. 2i). This timeline of development hence supports our modelling results and inferences about the nonlinear response of the TKS throughflow to sea level rise (Fig. 2b).

Moreover, our modelling results are broadly consistent with other paleoceanographic evidence. In the southern EAMS, multi-proxy reconstructions have used to suggest a rapid development of

maximum circulation intensification north of the Taiwan Island after the early Holocene23. According to our results, this pattern can be attributed to rapid establishment of the Taiwan

Strait throughflow, as a part of the modern-shape 3T-S circulation system (Fig. 2). In addition, a compilation of phytoplankton biomarker contents indicates stronger impact of the Kuroshio

Current water on the central EAMS in the Middle Holocene24,25, while evidence based on diatom assemblage counts also suggest the arrival of more Kuroshio Current water in the TKS area after

the early Holocene26. Together, these paleocenographic evidences corroborate our modelling results about the initiation process of the 3T-S circulation system that transports more Kuroshio

Current water via the Taiwan Strait into the EAMS, as a result of sea level rise from −40 to −5 m. Moreover, the alkenone evidence for the weakening in the Tsugaru-Strait throughflow from 7

to 0 ka BP27 is also in line with our modelling results about the deceleration from an overshoot in the Tsugaru-Strait throughflow along sea level rise from −5 to 0 m (Fig. 2). Our results

provide an explaination to the mystery that the initial intrusion of the TKS throughflow into the Sea of Japan was continuously established since the early Holocene, despite the TKS being

open already under glacial sea level low-stand conditions28,29,30,31,32 (Fig. 2b). Here, we propose the opening of the Soya Strait to act as the necessary and critical control to ultimately

develop the TKS throughflow into the Sea of Japan, as a process in the establishment course of the 3T-S circulation system once sea level rise exceeds −40 m during the last deglaciation. We

thus provide an alternative hypothesis to the existing narrative that regional effects of irregular gateway shape (Fig. 2b) at the TKS affect the change in the TKS throughflow29,30. In

essence, our mechanism provides an unifying explanation for the coexistence of the lake-like conditions28,31 in the Sea of Japan with an open TKS under maximal glacials. Moreover, according

to paleclimate evidences, the aburpt weakening of the TKS throughflow when sea level rise exceeded −5 m at 7 ka BP is also synchronous with a weakening in Asian summer33 and strengthing in

winter monsoon34 (Fig. 2h). Within the atmosphere-ocean coupled system, the summer and winter change in the Asian monsoons commonly act to decelerate the TKS throughflow, by inducing

anomulous southward wind-driven effect over the EAMS. Similarly, although on centennial scale, a weakening in the TKS throughflow at 7 and 4 ka BP also coincides with the resembled change in

the Asian monsoon system (Fig. 2h). Here, our modeling results thus argue that the sea level rise exceeding −5 m acts as a control, extra to the contribution by Asian monsoons, in

triggering the weakening the TKS throughflow at 7 ka BP. Our modelling results have important implications for paleoceanographic studies, as proxies recording seasonal features may be biased

in reconstructing the EAMS circulation since the last deglaciation. According to our modelling experiments, seasonality in the throughflows via the Taiwan Strait, TKS, Tsugaru Strait and

Soya Strait is commonly developed synchronous with the establishment of their climatology mean states. Generally, it also presents continuous intensification coherent with the growth in the

climatology mean strength along with sea level rise (Fig. 2a–d and Supplementary fig. 6). Here, we attribute the stronger seasonality in the EAMS circulation to the growing Taiwan-Strait

throughflow that carries more Kuroshio Current waters of high seasonal variability35,36 into the EAMS. As a consequence, the larger seasonal offsets relative to the annual mean state may

result in higher uncertainties to interpolate marine proxy results in corporating climate seasonality signals. We note that our modelling simulations with different sea levels have been

carried out with identical atmospheric and ocean boundary forcings, thus in term of diagnose about stand-alone effect of sea levels on the EAMS circulation. As a result, the

glacial-interglacial change of Asian monsoons37,38 and tropical Pacific ocean circulation39 through time may induce further complexity to the seasonality in the EAMS circulation. Our

findings suggest that the existence of two types thresholds via ‘ocean-gateway effect’ and ‘around-island integral constraint’ in triggering rapid shift of the EAMS circulation due to sea

level rise since the last deglacition. In sequence, they may explain the nonlinear change in the EAMS circulation at −40 and −5 m sea level, respectively (Fig. 4). Developing from previous

estimations28,40,41 about a linkage between the EAMS circulation and sea level rise during the last deglaciation, our results suggested −40 and −5 m as the sea-level thresholds in stepwisely

shaping the modern EAMS circulation42. In particular, we develop the concept that the around-island integral constraint functions as a physically-based bridge that introduces a nonlinear

shift in open-ocean circulation to induce abrupt variations of throughflow in the marginal seas. This is alternative to classic assignments about the ‘ocean-gateway effect’14 and the shift

in atmospheric circulation due to the corresponding ice sheet variation along with sea level oscillation, in the relationship between sea levels and the global ocean circulation on

glacial-interglacial time scales. According to our findings, there are likely exitence of more abrupt change points in the relationship between sea level and EAMS circulation due to ocean

dynamics, besides well recognized ocean-gateway effect, when analyzing consequence of the ongoing sea level rise1,2. Moreover, this suggest potential occurrence of natural hazard induced by

abrupt change of the circulation in global marginal seas along the ongoing and future sea level rise. To fully understand the sensitivity of sea levels and the global marginal seas

circulation, it would be desirable to use a high-resolution Earth System Model in combination with the global warming climate forcings. METHODS We simulated the EAMS circulation based on sea

levels from −90 to 0 m of the present, using a high-resolution Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) model43,44. The model has a horizontal resolution of 1/18° x 1/18° and 50 uneven

vertical layers, and ultilizes parameterization schemes as in Yu et al.45,46, the Mellor–Yamada level-2.5 scheme47 for vertical mixing and Smagorinsky scheme48 for horizontal diffusion. The

version of ROMS has been applied to simulate the modern North Pacific Ocean and EAMS, and the modelled circulation is comparable to instrumental oceanographic data45,46. In total, 11

experiments were conducted for the western North Pacific Ocean and the EAMS (Fig. 2a–d and Supplementary figs. 2, 3), with background sea levels incrementally increasing by 10 m from −90 m

to 0 m, as well as a subsequent experiment for −5 m sea level to better resolve more recent Holocene changes. In addition, the climatologically averaged monthly Coordinated Ocean-ice

Reference Experiments II (COREII) data49 were used as atmospheric forcing, while the climatologically averaged Simple Ocean Data Assimilation (SODA) data50 served as both initial and

boundary ocean conditions across all eleven experiments. Here, among experiments with varied sea levels, our application of the identical atmospheric and ocean lateral boundaries is to

highlight the diagnose about stand-alone impact of deglacial sea levels on the EAMS regional ocean circulation. By applying realistic surface and lateral boundary conditions, the conclusion

reached here may change due to the interactions between the air and sea, and the changes in ocean properties associated with the addition of ice sheet melt water into the ocean. Therefore,

to draw more affirmative conclusions, additional experiments using consistent surface and lateral boundary conditions are needed. Each run was integrated by 10 model years to allow for the

surface oceans to adjust to different sea levels. In the last five model years the simulated EAMS circulations were checked for the development of their quasi-equilibrium states regarding

the structure and intensities, respectively (see Supplementary fig. 4). DATA AVAILABILITY All relevant data in this paper will be uploaded to the PANGAEA Data Publisher. CODE AVAILABILITY

MPI-ESM climate model codes are available by a registration at https://www.myroms.org, and the scripts used to generate the figues are available from the corresponding author on request.

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ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS We are grateful to the colleagues in the Shandong Provincial Key Laboratory of Computer Networks and Key Laboratory of Marine Geology and Metallogeny, First Institute of

Oceanography, China. This study was funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 42376032), the Ministry of Science and Technology of the People’s Republic of China (No.

2019YFE0125000), Jinan Science and Technology Bureau (No. 202228034), Taishan Scholar Program of Shandong (No. tspd20181216) and Key R&D Program of Shandong Province, China (No.

2022CXGC020106). AUTHOR INFORMATION AUTHORS AND AFFILIATIONS * Key Laboratory of Computing Power Network and Information Security, Ministry of Education, Shandong Computer Science Center,

Qilu University of Technology (Shandong Academy of Sciences), Jinan, China Xun Gong & Guangliang Liu * Laboratory for Marine Geology, Qingdao Marine Science and Technology Center,

Qingdao, China Xun Gong, Xuefa Shi & Zhi Dong * Institute for Advanced Marine Research, China University of Geosciences, Guangzhou, China Xun Gong, Xuesong Wang & Jiong Zheng *

Alfred-Wegener-Institut Helmholtz-Zentrum für Polar- und Meeresforschung, Bremerhaven, Germany Xun Gong, Lester Lembke-Jene & Gerrit Lohmann * Shandong Provincial Key Laboratory of

Computing Power Internet and Service Computing, Shandong Fundamental Research Center for Computer Science, Jinan, China Xun Gong & Guangliang Liu * CAS Key Laboratory of Ocean

Circulation and Waves, Institute of Oceanology, and Center for Ocean Mega-Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Qingdao, China Yang Yu * Key Laboratory of Marine Sedimentology and

Environmental Geology, First Institute of Oceanography, Ministry of Natural Resources, Qingdao, China Xuefa Shi & Zhi Dong * Frontier Science Center for Deep Ocean Multispheres and Earth

System (FDOMES) and Physical Oceanography Laboratory, Ocean University of China, Qingdao, China Xiaopei Lin * Laoshan Laboratory, Qingdao, China Xiaopei Lin * University of Bremen, Bremen,

Germany Gerrit Lohmann Authors * Xun Gong View author publications You can also search for this author inPubMed Google Scholar * Yang Yu View author publications You can also search for this

author inPubMed Google Scholar * Xuefa Shi View author publications You can also search for this author inPubMed Google Scholar * Xiaopei Lin View author publications You can also search

for this author inPubMed Google Scholar * Guangliang Liu View author publications You can also search for this author inPubMed Google Scholar * Zhi Dong View author publications You can also

search for this author inPubMed Google Scholar * Xuesong Wang View author publications You can also search for this author inPubMed Google Scholar * Jiong Zheng View author publications You

can also search for this author inPubMed Google Scholar * Lester Lembke-Jene View author publications You can also search for this author inPubMed Google Scholar * Gerrit Lohmann View

author publications You can also search for this author inPubMed Google Scholar CONTRIBUTIONS X.G. designed this study, analysed the data, and initialize the manuscript. X.S. and X.L.

significantly improves the data interpolation. Y.Y. and G.L. jointly conducted the modelling experiments. X.G., Y.Y., X.S., G.L., X.L., Z.D., X.W., J.Z., L.L.J. and G.L. helped with the

improvement and revision of the manuscript. CORRESPONDING AUTHORS Correspondence to Xuefa Shi or Xiaopei Lin. ETHICS DECLARATIONS COMPETING INTERESTS The authors declare no competing

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ARTICLE CITE THIS ARTICLE Gong, X., Yu, Y., Shi, X. _et al._ Thresholds in East Asian marginal seas circulation due to deglacial sea level rise. _npj Clim Atmos Sci_ 8, 83 (2025).

https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-00927-y Download citation * Received: 13 May 2024 * Accepted: 21 January 2025 * Published: 01 March 2025 * DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-00927-y

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