Boris can bluster all he likes, but when it comes to europe, he won't actually get anywhere | thearticle

Boris can bluster all he likes, but when it comes to europe, he won't actually get anywhere | thearticle

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Boris Johnson is in No 10 — the Clown Prince reigns supreme. After all the hustings, the grillings, the domestic ructions and the wild displays of egotism, he got what he wanted. What a


circus it’s been. But despite it all, to borrow a phrase from his predecessor, “nothing has changed”. Sure, the Cabinet has gone through an overhaul. Johnson has brought in a troupe of the


hardest right-wingers ever assembled in British politics. The manner of his leadership is also an immediate contrast with what’s gone before. Out goes the high seriousness of Theresa May, to


be replaced by the glaring brightness of Johnson’s sunlit uplands, where the sheer force of his will is enough to power the country to victory. But the problem that destroyed Theresa May


has not gone away. And while we’re at it, it’s the same problem that ended the careers of David Cameron, John Major and Margaret Thatcher. Europe. It will dominate Johnson’s time in office,


just as it did May before him. He faces all the same problems that she did. But no — not quite. Not the exact same problems. Johnson intends to renegotiate the current Brexit agreement,


hammered out between Brussels and Whitehall over the past 36 months. This means Johnson faces the problems not of Theresa May in 2019, but of Theresa May back in 2016. Johnson’s only policy,


so it seems, is to take Britain three years back in time. There’s a Nietzschean sense of recurrence about all this. The British body politic is about to attempt something that it has


already tried and found to be impossible. It stands to reason that all the same things will happen all over again. Britain will stamp its feet and the EU won’t budge. In his first call with


Jean-Claude Junker, the European commission president told Johnson that the existing deal is “the best and only agreement possible”. And so to the threat of “No Deal.” Johnson has said that


Britain’s “No Deal” planning is advanced and that it is a serious and viable option for Britain. The problem with this is that “No Deal” doesn’t exist. It’s impossible. It simply can’t


happen. Imagine for a moment a world in which nothing British could be sold in any continental European country — and vice versa. That would be ridiculous. At some point at least some sort


of agreement would have to be struck. Or would Dover simply be shut, the Channel Tunnel bricked up? That, essentially, is what “No Deal” presupposes. Are we also saying that we’d be happy if


British people were unable to travel to continental Europe? No, of course not. It’s another absurd idea. There would have to be agreements about legal protections of UK citizens on holiday,


what health cover they would require, agreements on banking services, what travel insurance they’d need, and so on and so on. And these matters would be the stuff of an agreement — a deal


if you like. So Johnson can dangle the “No Deal” threat all he likes, everyone knows it’s rubbish. Even if it weren’t, he’d have no chance of getting it through Parliament anyway. Johnson,


it should be remembered, has a working majority of two. Theresa May had many faults. But one thing she saw clearly was that she needed a mandate. It was impossible for her to take over from


Cameron and do what she intended without the democratic ballast of an election to hold her steady. A series of terrible campaign decisions saw the whole thing end in disaster. But her


instinct was the right one. Johnson is in a similarly weak position, and no amount of bluster can disguise it. At some point he will realise that he can’t do what he wants because the


Commons won’t let him. He could try and shutter Parliament by some arcane constitutional ruse, but Johnson’s defining character trait is that he wants to be liked. Coming out as an autocrat


wouldn’t do him much good on that front. And so he’s heading for an election and probably quite soon. He’ll fumble along, make a few jokey speeches to unimpressed Europeans, and perhaps


continue to be amusing at dinner parties. But when it comes to Europe, he won’t actually get anywhere. The election will follow. I shouldn’t be surprised if the chaos he unleashes is so


appalling that when the time comes he loses not only that wafer-thin majority, but also his own seat.