A few days ago I wrote a piece for TheArticle criticising the England team as pedestrian and predicting that Germany would defeat them in the first knock-out round of the Euros. Clearly, I

was wrong about the result — but I still think the England team is one of the worst I have seen in recent years. If they are so bad, why are they doing so well and why did I get the result

so wrong? There are three answers: Luck, luck and luck. These are the same reasons that explain England’s terrible performances in the World Cup and European Championships since 1966. It is

tempting to compare the current team with the World Cup winning team in 1966, the last time England beat Germany in a knock-out game (England beat Germany 1-0 in the 2000 Euros, but that was

boasted Bobby Moore, Bobby Charlton, Peters, Hurst and Lee lost, albeit after extra time, to Germany. In 1986 England lost to the Argentina of Diego Maradona (“the hand of God” game); in

1990 England lost to Germany again, this time in the semi-finals, after penalties; in 2002 Sven-Göran Eriksson’s England lost in the quarter-finals to Brazil, with goals by Rivaldo and

Ronaldinho; in 2006 a 10-man England team lost on penalties to the Portugal of Ronaldo and Figo; in 2010 England lost 4-1 in South Africa to the extraordinary young German team with Neuer,

Lahm, Thomas Müller, Özil, Khedira, Schwisteiger, Podolski and Klose. The second reason, of course, was penalties. In crucial games, time after time, we lost on penalties. These England

teams were first-rate, with players like Peter Shilton and David Seaman, Ashley Cole and Gary Neville, John Terry, Rio Ferdinand and Sol Campbell; Beckham, Gerrard, Lampard and Scholes in

midfield; strikers such as Lineker, Owen, Rooney, Shearer and Sheringham. There is simply no comparison with the current England team. We had fine managers too: Bobby Robson, Terry Venables

and Sven himself, in particular. With such players, “the golden generation”, expectations were high. They mostly played for top clubs with lots of experience of playing against the best

teams in Europe, but they weren’t good enough at penalties or in defeating the very best national teams. Time and again, we were drawn early on against Germany, Argentina, Brazil and

Portugal. And not bad versions of these teams. England played them at their very best, the World Cup-winning Argentinian side of 1986, with Maradona in his pomp, the World Cup-winning German

team of 1990, the Brazilian World Cup winners of 2002, the great young German team which burst into the scene in 2010. Compare this with 2021. A pretty easy group stage. Then one of the

worst German teams we have seen in years. Before the game we wondered which Germany would turn up: the team that lost to France and barely managed to draw with Hungary, or the Germany that

beat Portugal 4-2. We know now that it was the first. It is sad to see Joachim Löw end his brilliant career with such a defeat, symbolised by Thomas Müller missing that easy chance for an

equaliser, the very same Müller who had scored twice against England in South Africa eleven years ago. Surely, we will never see him, Kroos or Hummels play for Germany again. It has been an

extraordinary few days in European football. Italy struggled to beat Austria after extra time, the Netherlands, Portugal, France and Germany are all out. No Ronaldo, Modric, Pogba or Neuer

in the quarter-finals. It’s been a great time for the smaller countries: Denmark, eight goals in their last two games, the Czech Republic, so poor in the group stage and so good against the

Netherlands, Switzerland astonishing against the formidable French team, and Croatia who did so well against Spain. As a result, the quarter-finals include Switzerland, the Czech Republic,

Denmark and Ukraine. And, miracle of miracles, the draw has now opened up for England. A poor German team, then Ukraine, third in their group, grim beyond words against Sweden, and a

possible semi-final against the Czechs or Danes. And if England reach the final, six out of seven of their games will have been played at Wembley. No games in Baku for England. The Welsh

(and Belgians) will be spitting nails. The best interview about England’s win against Germany was with Sven. Asked why his teams — with Rio Ferdinand and Neville, Beckham, Gerrard, Scholes

and Owen — hadn’t succeeded, he replied, ”we were a little bit unlucky”. Southgate, a thoroughly decent man, is lucky. Once a good centre-back, he has built a team that hasn’t yet conceded a

goal in four matches. The last England manager to do that in a major competition was Alf Ramsey in 1966: only two goals conceded in five games before they got to the final, where they too

faced a lacklustre German side. They played all their matches at Wembley. England won in 1966, but that also wasn’t the greatest team. It had far more great players than Southgate’s side:

Banks in goal, Moore at the heart of defence, Charlton a great goal-scoring midfielder, and Hurst the striker. Like Southgate’s team, it wasn’t as good as the golden generation, but it was

luckier. In my previous article I made one crucial mistake. I forgot the importance of luck. France hit the bar in the last minute of normal time against Switzerland. The Müller of 2010

wouldn’t have missed the chance he missed last night. Will De Bruyne recover from his injury in time to help the favourites, Belgium, win the European Championships? If they don’t, it may be

England’s year. And if it is, that would be just what the country needs after such a terrible fifteen months. I may be a grinch; but if England win, that’s why I will rejoice. A MESSAGE

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