The speed with which the Chinese economy can recover from the coronavirus crisis may determine both who is the world leader, and who is China’s. The pandemic struck as the US was already

abdicating its role as the global head, embracing nationalism, protectionism and xenophobia. President Trump declared to the UN General Assembly last September: “The future does not belong

to globalists.”  As China recovered from the worst phase of the pandemic and the United States surged past a million infections last month, many believe the shift to a new world order led by

Beijing was sealed — China providing a Sputnik moment for the rest of the world with its fast and effective response to Covid-19, and its dominance of medical materiel production. It will

still experiencing real GDP growth of around six per cent. For the first quarter of 2020 it was down 6.8 per cent, according to the National Bureau of Statistics of China. This was the first

negative quarter since records began in 1992 and, if it continues, it could challenge President Xi Jinping’s hold on power. A poll of economists conducted by _Reuters_ in late April found

that China’s GDP for the current quarter was predicted to grow by 1.3 per cent, though responses ranged from negative five to positive five — highlighting the uncertainty surrounding its

economy as the country reopens. (By comparison, JP Morgan is predicting a 40 per cent contraction in the US economy during these three months.) “Although there is resumption of work, that

doesn’t mean that the economy is going back to the pre-Covid-19 levels. It is way, way behind that,” said Iris Pang, Greater China economist at ING in Hong Kong. “As long as strict social

distancing measures are in place, we think China will struggle to recover quickly. I also worry there will be a second round of infection from the western part of the world because they are

now relaxing the lockdown before their cases subside.” For 2020, forecasts are predicting growth of 1.8 per cent in China over the whole year — the worst annual performance since the final

year of Mao Zedong’s Cultural Revolution in 1976. There are several factors hindering the revival of China’s economy, but they can be summarised as a lack of workers, buyers and trade.

“Containment measures to prevent the spread of Covid-19 mean hundreds of thousands of workers are stranded far from factories,” wrote Charlie Campbell in_ Time_._ “_Production [has] also

been interrupted by the shelter-in-place measures that currently apply to half of humanity. Factories that have reopened have been forced to reduce capacity, or even close again, due to

cratering demand for Chinese exports.” The dive in global demand for China’s goods is having a greater impact on the economy than the shutdown. Regardless of what policy Beijing implements,

it is ultimately capped by the recovery of other economies. Domestic spending, especially in the retail sector, is also well below pre-corona levels due to persistent consumer anxiety.

Additionally, there is continued decoupling of the Chinese and United States economies that will harm the prosperity of both nations. This was already occurring with the pre-pandemic trade

wars, and American fears it was too reliant on its potential adversary. This has accelerated with coronavirus finger pointing and supply shortages, increasing friction between Washington and

Beijing.  China aimed to double the size of its economy from 2010 to 2020, and six per cent per annum growth is necessary to achieve Xi’s poverty alleviation goals. None of this is going to

happen.  As cases and deaths avalanched in February, local confidence in the Chinese Community Party and its omnipotent leader eroded. But the world has changed a lot in three months. The

origins of the outbreak and its impacts will be overshadowed by China’s effective response in contrast to the ongoing failures of many other world powers, including the US, the United

Kingdom and Russia. Despite the economic downturn, China will appear good by comparison. However, by Xi consolidating power and showing a reluctance to groom a successor, there is rising

anxiety in the CCP over its future. Add to this his increased suppression of the media, installation of mass surveillance systems, control of the party and of the army, and the repression of

minority groups, and you have the picture of an insecure leader. So far he’s been able to balance his absolute grip on power and his legitimacy in the eyes of his citizens by improving the

prosperity of the economy and the people. Should the economy recover poorly by comparison once all countries have emerged from the crisis, party members may be emboldened to risk criticising

the president. But this won’t be easy against arguably the most powerful Chinese leader since Mao, who is notorious for silencing dissent.  Always hidden behind a veil of misinformation,

the outside world may never know the extent of harm caused to China’s domestic economy or just how close its president came to not serving out his lifetime term. What we will find out is

whether China is able to claim the US’s spot as global leader, or whether both will lose out. This opens the possibility that we’ll see the rise of middle powers in a diminished and

disconnected international system.