The terrible spectacle of war has eclipsed the quotidian problems of peace. Yet the latter have never gone away — indeed the two are often bound inextricably together. For months before the

invasion of Ukraine, we have been warned about the impact of rising energy prices on domestic households in the spring. That blow was supposed to have been softened by the Chancellor, but

now the global consequences of Russia’s imminent exit from the energy markets mean that even worse news is, as it were, in the pipeline. After years of arguing about how to wean ourselves

off fossil fuels, we are being reminded of just how much we still need them. There is even a renewed discussion about fracking, hitherto supposedly off the agenda in Britain. Nuclear power,

The survivors are not so much the fittest as the most ruthless. As millions of fuel bills land on our doormats (or more likely pop up in our smartphones), a collective gasp can be heard.

For these price hikes are not as bad as we were told. They are far worse. Why? When the new suppliers took over last November, they took over our accounts and maintained the monthly direct

debits by which most people pay at their previous levels. But the prices were suddenly much higher, as the new contract gave the supplier carte blanche to raise them. Most rates per unit at

least doubled. The result is that almost every family is now in debt to their supplier. And in April the energy price cap — the amount by which bills can increase — will rise by nearly £700

to £1,971 per annum. But the bigger impact on bills will be the increase in monthy debits, as suppliers claw back the debts built up since November. What this means is that most people are

experiencing not just the sharp rise of 51 per cent implied by that raising of the cap, but a tripling of energy costs in less than six months. Think what this means in practice. Instead of

an average annual bill of £1,277 (according to Ofgem), many households will find themselves paying up to £5,000 or more a year. Fuel poverty — the millions who have to choose between heating

and eating — will rise exponentially. The knock-on effects will be felt throughout the economy, from the property market to food prices. Working from home will suddenly seem a lot less

affordable for those who have a choice: it may dawn on them that during the pandemic employers have effectively outsourced their energy costs to their staff. For the self-employed, there is,

of course, no escape — but unlike bigger businesses they have next to the no bargaining power and many will go to the wall. The impact of the energy crisis on inflation will be considerable

and this will eventually translate into unemployment. The risk that the post-pandemic recovery, unexpectedly strong so far, may now falter is rising fast. All this is feeding into the

nervousness that is driving down share prices, already spooked by the uncertainties consequent upon a European war, a global arms race, unprecedented sanctions and unintended trade barriers.

What is to be done? As far as household bills are concerned, Rishi Sunak is reported to have ruled out adjusting the green and social levies that cost households an average of £195 a year,

amounting to more than 25 per cent on electricity bills. His promised relief on council tax and possible benefit rises will only affect lower income groups. The rich will hardly notice their

energy bills — though there may be less inclination to splash their cash for fear of exciting unwelcome media attention. As usual, the “squeezed middle” will carry the burden for the rest

of society. The politics of envy, already ubiquitous even during the pandemic, will make a comeback. This new era of austerity could make the last one look like a picnic: the fall in average

living standards this year looks likely to be several times worse than after the 2008 crash and perhaps worse than anything seen since the 1970s. The war in Ukraine is undoubtedly

exacerbating all these shocks, but using it as a catch-all scapegoat is not going to work for the Government. Blame Putin for his war crimes and his wanton destruction of a great nation in

the heart of Europe, by all means, but don’t expect the country to let ministers shirk their responsibility to mitigate the real sacrifices that will have to be made. The rising price of

peace means that a huge rise in defence spending is inevitable. As writers for TheArticle have been warning for more than 18 months, inflation will have to be brought under control. The Bank

of England has already signalled an end to quantitative easing and higher interest rates mean that borrowing is already much more expensive than before the pandemic. And the rise in

national insurance next month will hit most people where it hurts: not a stealth tax, this time, but a raid on wages and salaries in broad daylight. Boris Johnson has risen magnificently to

the challenge of leading the Western response to Russian aggression, thereby incidentally saving his own job. Britain has done more to save Ukraine than any other country — and the

Ukrainians know it. Yet that formidable task comes more easily to the PM than the challenge of leading his own country through hard times — harder than most will remember. Instead of

enjoying the roaring twenties, we may find ourselves embarking on a test of endurance. Even so, this is not the moment to batten down the hatches. The only thing that will carry the economy

through this storm will be an appetite for innovation, experimentation and deregulation. If the British economy is to recover, the British must recover their buccaneering spirit. If the

prospect were for plain sailing, Sir Keir Starmer’s sober-sided caution might fit the mood, but in the choppy waters ahead a bolder choice as Prime Minister is likely to be the better one.

If anyone can get us through this, it is Boris. A MESSAGE FROM THEARTICLE _We are the only publication that’s committed to covering every angle. We have an important contribution to make,

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