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Last night, the Commons voted by 328 to 301 to take control of the agenda, allowing the ‘rebel alliance’ to bring a bill requesting a Brexit delay. In one fell swoop, Boris Johnson has lost
his first vote in the House of Commons, control of the parliamentary agenda, and his wafer thin majority. But though the Prime Minister is down, he’s certainly not yet out. So, what are the
Government’s options? 1. FILLIBUSTER IN THE LORDS. The Guido Fawkes blog revealed this morning that Government forces in the House of Lords have a plan to prevent Hilary Benn’s anti-No Deal
‘Surrender Bill’ from becoming law in the likely event it is passed in the Commons this evening. Leave supporting peers have tabled 86 amendments to a Business Motion intended to speed up
the passage of the Benn Bill, each of which will require two votes to be heard and dismissed. Given that this process will take over a hundred hours of sitting time, it’s very possible that
Hilary Benn’s anti-No Deal Bill won’t even have been read – let alone passed – by the time Parliament is prorogued on Monday morning. But there’s a flaw in this cunning scheme. Although
most unfinished business falls upon prorogation, it would be possible for the rebel alliance to introduce a new, very similar bill when Parliament returns on 14 October – and this
alternative bill would have two full weeks to get through the Commons and the Lords before the 31 October Brexit deadline. 2. AGREE TO LABOUR’S DEMANDS AND PUSH THROUGH A GENERAL ELECTION.
As things stand, Labour refuses to back a General Election unless no-deal is “taken off the table” ie. until the Benn Bill passes. If the Government decides that option one is too risky, it
may opt to help the Benn Bill through the Lords with the intention of demanding a General Election once it’s been passed (under the Fixed Term Parliament Act, two-thirds of the House must
support an election). It would be a big gamble: if Boris won a thumping majority, he may be able to repeal the ‘Surrender Bill’ and take the UK out of the EU with or without a deal on or
soon after 31 October. But repealing the Bill would be a laborious process even with a majority – and, of course, if Boris failed to win one we’d be right back at Square One. 3. RESIGN. If
the Government resigned, the Queen would ask Jeremy Corbyn whether he could form a government which would have the confidence of the House of Commons. He, would assure her he could, and
would be appointed Prime Minister. Johnson, as Leader of the Opposition, could then propose a motion of no confidence in the new government which would have a good chance of succeeding (only
Ken Clarke on the Conservative benches has declared any support for a Corbyn government). Since no one else could form a government, we would then have a general election. But, even if
Boris won, he would still have to find a way of getting around the Benn Bill (see option 2). 4. PROPOSE A MOTION OF NO CONFIDENCE IN ITSELF. The Prime Minister has the option of proposing a
motion of no confidence in his own government. There’s a chance Corbyn might tell Labour to abstain, but as the Leader of the Opposition it would be unthinkable for him to order them to
oppose the motion (ie. back the Government). It would therefore pass, and Johnson, truthfully, would tell the Queen that no one else could form a government which would have the confidence
of the House of Commons. She would keep him as Prime Minister (as convention dictates), and 14 days an election could be called. This option has the benefit of taking up less parliamentary
time than option 3, but would lead to a similar result. Unless the Government can find a way to make Option 1 foolproof, its best bet is to find a way around the Fixed Term Parliament Act
and call a General Election. And, though things don’t look rosy for Boris today, there is a definite silver lining to last night’s events: in a General Election the Tory party under Boris
Johnson now has the huge advantage of having a crystal-clear message on Brexit.