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In Swindon, everyone knows at least one person who has worked for Honda. So when the news broke last week that the Japanese car manufacturer would be closing its 360-acre plant in 2021,
taking with it 3,500 people’s livelihoods, I felt a little numb. I think we all did. On social media, as has become depressingly ritual, both tribes in the Brexit debate were keen to blame
the other side for the closure. For Remainers, this was another episode in the nation’s favourite tragi-drama that is our departure from the European Union. For many Leavers, remainers were
politicising a tragedy – Brexit was not to blame; there were bigger factors at play. British car manufacturing has been in decline for over half a century. With the departure of Nissan
confirmed earlier this year, we are likely seeing the last, violent shakes of an industry which once touched every corner of this island. In 1968 only 10% of cars were imported into the UK.
By 1980, it was 60%. The election of Margaret Thatcher in 1979 helped transform the UK from nationalistic car-makers into a country hungry for investment from any quarter. We might not end
up with a British car industry, but we’d get British jobs, and in the new globalised world, that was enough. This development dovetailed with a booming Japanese economy keen for beacheads
into a growing European market, and Britain had a beach to offer. In the 80s, Nissan set up its operations in Sunderland, Toyota, Derbyshire and, of course, Swindon. As someone who was born
and raised in Swindon—and grew up only a five minute drive away from the plant—and has spent all but three years of his life in the town, I can tell you first-hand there was a sense that
this was coming. Swindonians are familiar with the drive-time radio news announcing the firing of hundreds of workers. The day of the announcement, the Honda plant was operating at around
half its actual capacity, and barely profitable. For years, the Swindon plant has only built one model—the Honda civic. When the plant finally shuts in 3 years time, the total number of jobs
affected (directly and indirectly), including the supply lines and surrounding service sector, could be closer to 10,000. We should be sceptical of monocausal explanations. It should be
noted that Honda is not relocating to one of the remaining 27-member states of the European Union, but its home turf, Japan. And understandably so. A new EU-Japan trade deal has come into
force this year which slashes tariffs on EU food exports—allowing Japanese consumers to buy more French wine or Polish sausage—in return for zero tariffs for Japanese cars. Considering Japan
is the world’s third biggest auto exporter after China and the United States, these recent developments look like less of a surprise. Speaking on BBC Radio Four, Ian Howells, Vice President
of Honda said: “This is not a Brexit-related issue for us, this decision has been made on the basis of global changes.” Brexit is the issue that clouds all others, however. And despite
denials from Honda and the Japanese ambassador that the recently announced closure has anything to do with Britain’s departure from the EU, conversations on the ground are quite different.
“I think trying to convince Honda [to stay] depends almost entirely on the outcome of the Brexit negotiations,” says Jim Robbins, Labour councillor for the Mannington & Western Ward.
“Although they have been very clear that this is not a Brexit-related decision, in every conversation I’ve had with Honda people since they’ve always stress how important is that have access
to the single market access to the customers union. The conversations I’ve had with BMW Mini [another employer in the town] have been along the same lines.” The car industry itself is in a
period of transition that has only compounded problems. The looming introduction of environmental legislation in China and elsewhere threatens the viability of existing models; the move away
from diesel, and the appetite for developing driverless technology has meant the legal and commercial certainties that existed in the industry only a decade ago have been replaced with a
profound sense of precariousness. Provoked by global warming and rising levels of obesity, Governments around the globe are trying to get their citizens out of cars and onto bikes, pavements
and public transport, too. This obviously hasn’t helped. Automation is slowly making jobs like those at Swindon’s Honda plant unnecessary. Protracted uncertainty about how the UK trades
with the rest of the world may not be the reason behind the Honda closure, but for an industry which needs all the stability it can get, it certainly can’t be helping. The Government can do
something about this. Their first job is to nail down the Withdrawal Agreement as fast as possible, and ignore the Labour leadership’s cynical call for a ‘People’s Vote’—a reckless move that
will only bring more uncertainty, and polls show is unlikely to give us a drastically different result. The EU’s share of the global economy is on the long-term decline, and it is right
that the UK takes advantage of Brexit and looks beyond its horizons to the developed countries of tomorrow. But another protracted negotiation will do nothing for our long-term prospects.
The government should prioritise getting as comprehensive access to the EU’s markets as can be achieved—without sacrificing the ability to independently strike trade deals—as fast as
possible, otherwise more announcements like those from Honda will surely follow.