Buttons have been pressed to electronically distribute preferences for the Senate in Victoria, the ACT, Queensland and Western Australia. Labor gained a seat from the Liberals in Victoria,

with the other two unchanged. I had a wrap of earlier button presses on Tuesday. Six of the 12 senators for each state and all four territory senators were up for election on May 3. Changes

in state senate representation are measured against 2019, the last time these senators were up for election. Senators are elected by proportional representation in their jurisdictions with

preferences. At a half-Senate election, with six senators in each state up for election, a quota is one-seventh of the vote, or 14.3%. For the territories, a quota is one-third or 33.3%.

Victorian Socialists 0.11. On the distribution of preferences, Labor’s third candidate defeated One Nation by 0.87 quotas to 0.81. Neither the third Liberal nor Legalise Cannabis were

anywhere near One Nation at earlier exclusion points. On the exclusion of the Liberals, 50% of their preferences went to One Nation, 22% to Labor, 14% to Legalise Cannabis and the rest

exhausted. At this point, One Nation led Labor by 0.73 quotas to 0.67 with 0.47 for Legalise Cannabis. On Legalise Cannabis’ exclusion, Labor won 42% of preferences, One Nation 19% and the

rest exhausted, giving Labor its win. The third candidate on Labor’s Victorian Senate ticket was Michelle Ananda-Rajah, the former Labor member for Higgins before Higgins was abolished in a

redistribution. Usually Labor only wins two Victorian senators with the Greens winning the third for the left. Ananda-Rajah would not have expected to be back in parliament, although in a

different chamber. WA, QUEENSLAND AND ACT SENATE RESULTS The Western Australian Senate result is two Labor, two Liberals, one Green and one One Nation, a gain for One Nation from the

Liberals. Final WA primary votes gave Labor 2.53 quotas, the Liberals 1.86, the Greens 0.90, One Nation 0.41, Legalise Cannabis 0.28, the Nationals 0.25 and Australian Christians 0.19. Until

very late it had been expected that Labor would take the last seat instead of One Nation, but The Poll Bludger changed his model to give One Nation a slight lead owing to evidence of

stronger Coalition flows to One Nation in other states. In Queensland, Labor won two seats, the Liberal National Party two, the Greens one and One Nation one. This was a gain for Labor from

the LNP after Labor’s 2019 disaster, when they won just one Queensland senator. Final Queensland primary votes gave the LNP 2.17 quotas, Labor 2.13, the Greens 0.73, One Nation 0.50, Gerard

Rennick 0.33, Trumpet of Patriots 0.26 and Legalise Cannabis 0.25. I will analyse the WA and Queensland preference distributions in a final Senate results wrap article that will be posted

after the final state, New South Wales, has its button pressed. Labor is expected to gain a seat in NSW from the Coalition. Left-wing independent David Pocock and Labor were both re-elected

in the ACT, with no change since 2022. Final primary votes were 1.17 quotas for Pocock, 0.95 Labor, 0.53 for the Liberals (just 17.8%) and 0.23 for the Greens. Labor crossed quota on the

exclusion of second Pocock candidate with the Liberals and Greens still remaining. LABOR’S NATIONAL TWO PARTY VOTE UP TO A 55.6–44.4 LEAD On May 5, two days after the election, I explained

that we needed to wait for “non-classic” seats to have a special two-party count undertaken between the Labor and Coalition candidates. Non-classic seats are seats where the final two were

not Labor and Coalition candidates. With the major party national primary votes so low at this election, 35 of the 150 House of Representatives seats were non-classics. Before the two-party

counts in these seats started, The Poll Bludger’s national two-party estimate gave Labor a 54.6–45.4 margin and the ABC a 55.0–45.0 margin. This week the electoral commission has been

counting the Labor vs Coalition two-party votes in the non-classic seats, and Labor currently leads by 55.6–44.4. The national two-party vote is still incomplete, but the large majority of

non-classic seats have now had a two-party count undertaken. The remaining non-classic seats that are either uncounted or partially counted to two-party are favourable to the Coalition, so

Labor will drop back a little, but will still win the national two party vote by about 55.4–44.6. Labor’s biggest wins on a Labor vs Coalition basis are seats where Labor and the Greens made

the final two. For example in Wills, Labor defeated the Greens by 51.4–48.6, but the two-party count gives Labor a massive 80.9–19.1 win over the Liberals. Swings to Labor in non-classic

seats have been bigger than swings in classic seats, so Labor’s two-party vote has increased. Labor’s big two-party win makes the pre-election polls look worse than they did on election

night. Here’s the poll graph I was posting in all my pre-election articles updated with the estimated final two-party margin. Only one national poll was accurate: the Morgan poll published

two weeks before the election that gave Labor a 55.5–44.5 lead. It’s a shame for Morgan that their final two polls “herded” back to a consensus that was wrong. I will have a full review of

the federal polls once all results are finalised. RECOUNTS IN BRADFIELD AND GOLDSTEIN A full recount is in progress in Liberal-held Bradfield, where the Liberal was ahead of Teal Nicolette

Boele by eight votes after distribution of preferences. Four days into the recount, the Liberal leads by just five votes. A partial recount in Goldstein of the primary votes for Liberal Tim

Wilson and Teal incumbent Zoe Daniel is also underway after Wilson led by 260 votes after distribution of preferences. Two days into this recount, Wilson leads by 259 votes and will win

unless large errors are found that favour Daniel when corrected.