Michael Joyner receives funding from The US National Institutes of Health and has consulted for Nike in the past. The opinions expressed in this piece are those of the author and not his

employer.

Eliud Kipchoge’s spectacular 2:01:39 marathon world record at Berlin on the 16th of September 2018 raises a number of questions about just how low the record can go and when another record

might happen.

The Kenyan’s extraordinary success didn’t come as a complete surprise. In May last year he ran 2:00:25 for the marathon distance in a special “exhibition” staged by Nike run on the car

racing track at Monza in Italy. The race included a phalanx of pace makers along with Nike’s latest and greatest racing shoe.

On top of this, since he started competing in marathons in 2013, Kipchoge has had an amazing string of competitive success in major races winning 10 of 11 including a gold medal at Rio. He

also has a superb record at shorter races.. His only non-win was a second place finish at Berlin in 2013.

As impressive as these performances are, I have been saying since the early 1990s that it might be physiologically possible for a human to run faster – and perhaps even to run a marathon

under two hours.

I based this on my research which focused on the various physiological factors that contribute to fast marathon running. In my papers I looked at what would happen if one person had the best

values ever recorded for the “big three” – maximal oxygen uptake, the so-called lactate threshold, and running economy or efficiency.

So what do the 2:01:39 record and 2:00:25 exhibition time by Kipchoge tell us about what might be possible – and when it might happen?

First, for both runs the temperatures at the race starts were a bit higher than what might be ideal – about 8°C - 10°C. Things also warmed up during the runs. I believe that on a slightly

cooler day, Kipchoge could go faster. The response to small changes in temperature can vary between individuals, but a slightly cooler day should be conducive to a faster time, maybe 20 or

30 seconds.

Second, for the 2:00:25 run in 2017, the course had minimal sharp turns and the pacing was perfect with plenty of elite runners doing essentially a relay in front of Kipchoge to reduce wind

resistance. By contrast the Berlin course is full of turns, and Kipchoge covered the last 40% or so of the race alone.

A faster course and better pace making could clearly also help take time off.

These two issues could be solved by having an open race on a flat fast (low altitude) loop course with minimal turns. The Monza track comes to mind. And the race would need to be run when

the weather was likely to be good. Running it at night could keep things even cooler.

There could also be lots of fast runners recruited to run the race with cash premiums to anyone who hit fast times for intermediate distances. In marathon running top athletes only have a

limited number of paydays per year, so to get all of the top runners at the same race on the same day would take a creative prize money scheme, appearance fees and a big purse.

The third key point is an infusion of talent. Kipchoge is now 33-years-old. He has been at the top for about 15 years and sooner or later he will slow down or retire. He clearly has a number

of good years left, but not an unlimited number. The good news is there are some emerging talents in distance running including a 12-minute 43-seconds 5000m track run (4th fastest ever) by

18-year-old Selemon Barega of Ethiopia just a few weeks ago.

While it’s certainly reasonable to expect that whoever comes next will be from the high altitude zones of Kenya or Ethiopia, Jakob Ingebrigtsen of Norway who will turn 18 on September 19 is

running some very fast times at shorter distances. I also wonder what hidden talent there might be in the mountains of South America and Himalayas.