Budget 2018: between a (fiscal) rock and a (growth) hard place

Budget 2018: between a (fiscal) rock and a (growth) hard place

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Mundle sees growth in fiscal 2018 at 6.7 percent, in line with the Reserve Bank of India’s forecast. He, too, expects growth to recover to 7-7.5 percent in the next financial year. While


headline growth may recover, the government may still need to think of ways to strengthen certain segments. The export sector, real estate and the farm sector are some areas that economists


hope the government will pay special attention to. While there is a long term issue of productivity in the farm sector that needs to be addressed, in the short term, concerns over the rural


economy may be exaggerated, Virmani said. He suggests the government focus on those long-term issues rather than looking for quick-fixes to the perceived rural distress. “Agriculture is one


of those sectors where we have seen no reform, whether in terms of export-import policies or domestic constraints. If we are to get higher productivity and incomes and full-time jobs in


rural services and agriculture, then we need to carry out those reforms. This is where the issue of populism comes in - whether they will focus on short-term relief measures and give-aways


or will they focus more on these medium-term issues,” he said.