ABSTRACT The weather at middle latitudes is largely unpredictable more than a week or so in advance, whereas fluctuations in the ocean may be predictable over much longer timescales. If

decadal fluctuations in North Atlantic sea surface temperature1,2,3,4,5,6 could be predicted, it might be possible to exploit their influence on the atmosphere7,8,9,10 to forecast decadal

fluctuations in climate11. Here we report analyses of shipboard observations that indicate significant decadal predictability of North Atlantic sea surface temperature, arising from the

advective propagation of sea-surface-temperature anomalies4 and the existence of a regular period of 12–14 years in the propagating signals. The same timescale can be identified in a

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support SIMILAR CONTENT BEING VIEWED BY OTHERS ACCELERATED NORTH ATLANTIC SURFACE WARMING RESHAPES THE ATLANTIC MULTIDECADAL VARIABILITY Article Open access 29 October 2024 SUBPOLAR

ATLANTIC OCEAN MIXED LAYER HEAT CONTENT VARIABILITY IS INCREASINGLY DRIVEN BY AN ACTIVE OCEAN Article Open access 18 May 2022 SKILLFUL MULTIYEAR TO DECADAL PREDICTIONS OF SEA LEVEL IN THE

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M.McCartney for permission to reproduce Fig. 1a . R.T.S. was supported by the UK NERC Universities Global Atmospheric Modelling Programme, M.R.A. was supported by the NERC/RAL Ocean Dynamics

Service Level Agreement. AUTHOR INFORMATION AUTHORS AND AFFILIATIONS * Atmospheric Oceanic and Planetary Physics, Clarendon Laboratory, University of Oxford, Parks Road, OX1 3PU, Oxford, UK

R. T. Sutton & M. R. Allen * Department of Meteorology, Centre for Global Atmospheric Modelling, University of Reading, PO Box 243, Earley Gate, RG6 6BB, Reading, UK R. T. Sutton *

Space Science Department, Rutherford Appleton Laboratory, OX11 0QX, Chilton, UK M. R. Allen Authors * R. T. Sutton View author publications You can also search for this author inPubMed 

Google Scholar * M. R. Allen View author publications You can also search for this author inPubMed Google Scholar CORRESPONDING AUTHOR Correspondence to R. T. Sutton. RIGHTS AND PERMISSIONS

Reprints and permissions ABOUT THIS ARTICLE CITE THIS ARTICLE Sutton, R., Allen, M. Decadal predictability of North Atlantic sea surface temperature and climate. _Nature_ 388, 563–567

(1997). https://doi.org/10.1038/41523 Download citation * Received: 12 May 1997 * Accepted: 17 June 1997 * Issue Date: 07 August 1997 * DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/41523 SHARE THIS ARTICLE

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