ABSTRACT Debris-flow activity in the Alps is anticipated to undergo pronounced changes in response to a warming climate. Yet, a fundamental challenge in comprehensively assessing changes in

process activity is the systematic lack of long-term observational debris-flow records. Here, we reconstruct the longest, continuous time series (1626-2020) of debris flows at Multetta, a

supply-limited torrential system in the Eastern Swiss Alps. Relying on growth-ring records of trees that were damaged by debris flows, we do not detect significant changes in the frequency

or magnitude over time. This seeming absence of a direct climatic influence on debris-flow initiation aligns with the regular distribution of repose time patterns, indicating a dependence of

DATABASE, METEOROLOGICAL TRIGGERS, AND TRENDS Article Open access 31 December 2024 QUANTITATIVE CONSTRAINTS ON FLOOD VARIABILITY IN THE ROCK RECORD Article Open access 08 June 2023

SUPRAGLACIAL DEBRIS THICKNESS AND SUPPLY RATE IN HIGH-MOUNTAIN ASIA Article Open access 05 November 2022 INTRODUCTION Debris flows are water-laden masses of rock, soil, air and fines with

volumetric sediment concentrations typically exceeding 40%1,2,3. These sediment masses move rapidly through channel networks and across alluvial fans, where they claim lives and/or devastate

property4,5,6. Debris flows are typically triggered by intense precipitation7,8,9 and soil instability10,11,12 occurring at the same locations periodically13. Studies on the historical

development of debris flows, focusing almost exclusively on supply-unlimited catchments, point to an increase in both their frequency and magnitude14,15,16,17 as a result of more frequent

rainstorms, but also due to glacier retreat, rock-glacier acceleration18,19,20, or permafrost degradation21,22,23,24 leading to enhanced accumulation of unconsolidated debris in the

initiation zones of debris flows25. Yet, results are not unequivocal and some authors also argued that debris-flow activity does not show any clear trend at all21,26,27,28,29 or even reduced

activity30 as a result of fewer storms in summer or changes in sediment supply. This conundrum31 lies in part in the often complex – or indirect – relation between debris-flow triggering,

sediment availability, geomorphic connectivity, and climate32,33,34. Likewise, the scarcity of systematic data28,35,36 hampers assessment of climate change impacts on debris flow occurrence,

especially in remote mountain environments and over multi-centennial timescales28. In addition, the few datasets existing so far tend to suffer from non-uniform observation rates35 as well

as biases toward recent and larger debris flows causing damage to humans or infrastructure37,38,39. Major uncertainties therefore persist in (i) the assessment of multidecadal to centennial

trends in debris-flow activity or (ii) the detection and attribution of climatic drivers which in turn influence changes in the frequency or magnitude of debris flows. These gaps in

knowledge and observations currently also impede efforts to calibrate and evaluate process-based models that simulate the past and future evolution of debris-flow activity and impacts14,40.

Here, we take advantage of an exceptional old-growth Swiss mountain pine (_Pinus mugo_ ssp. _rotundata_) forest stand growing on the Multetta fan (Tschierv, Grisons; Eastern Swiss Alps;

46.63°N, 10.31°E; Figs. 1 and 2). The stand is impacted by debris flows and thus suited for process reconstruction using dendrogeomorphic techniques41,42. This study does not only present

the longest reconstruction of past debris-flow activity in the Eastern Swiss Alps, but also allows investigation of whether past and ongoing climate warming has had an impact on the

frequency and magnitude of debris flows. The Multetta fan (Figs. 1 and 2) is a massive depositional landform fed by four headwater catchments (Fig. 1B, Supplementary Fig. S1). Characterized

by thin soils and low water storage capacity43, deposits consist of a main (surface: 1.03 km²) and a secondary fan (0.21 km²; Fig. 1B). Debris-flow material exclusively originates from the

small (0.59 km²) but very steep (mean slope: 43.5°) _Vallun da Piz Daint_ headwater catchment shown in Figs. 1C, 2, and Supplementary Fig. S2, a feature underlain by Triassic sedimentary

rocks of the Engadin Dolomites. Dominant lithologies consist of dolomites in the upper part, and sandstones in the lower part. Whereas the region was covered in ice during the Last Glacial

Maximum, no glacial deposits exist anymore in the catchment, but can be found in its close vicinity. Permafrost is, at best, marginally present on the east face of Piz Daint44 (2968 m asl,

Fig. 1C). With a Melton index45 of 1.24 and a proximal fan slope of 22%, the headwater catchment presents a very high debris-flow susceptibility46 Detailed analysis of orthoimages and LiDAR

data indicates that Multetta is a debris-flow system with notable limitations in sediment supply. In fact, debris-flow activity is controlled by 9 active sediment sources representing 83% of

Vallun da Piz Daint (Supplementary Fig. S2, Supplementary Table S1). These sources are dominated by rocky headwaters in which rockfall resulting from frost cracking is the main source of

debris accumulation. In similar bedrock-dominated, low-order headwater catchments, loose debris has been shown to accumulate at a rate that is half that of colluvial erosion processes, with

obvious consequences on debris-flow frequency47,48,49 RESULTS AND DISCUSSION MULTI-CENTENNIAL DEBRIS FLOW RECONSTRUCTION IN THE EASTERN SWISS ALPS The eastern part of the main fan is covered

with a continuous and dense _P. mugo_ stand while on its western part, the forest is sparser and fragmented by recent debris-flow channels and deposits. Dendrogeomorphic analyses of the 478

 _P. mugo_ trees sampled along four transects across the main fan (Fig. 1D) yield a mean tree age of 261 ± 85 yrs and allowed detection of 1427 growth disturbances in the tree-ring series

(Figs. 1E and 3A), corresponding to 56 years with debris-flow activity since 1626 CE (Fig. 3B). As the number of trees available for analysis decreases as one goes back in time and some

parts of the fan may not have recording trees in the more distant past40,50, we realized a completeness analysis to assess the reliability of our data with two approaches50,51 (see Methods).

Results indicate that the period from which the tree-ring based reconstruction is reliable and free of biases commences in 1687 or 1750, depending on the approach used (Fig. 3B).

Considering successively 1687 (_n_ = 55 events) and 1750 (_n_ = 44 events) as starting dates of the reconstruction, we find a long-term average occurrence ratio of 0.16 and 0.2 debris flows

year–1, respectively. Reconstructed process activity (Fig. 3B, Supplementary Fig. S3) points to an absence of events between 1750–1769, 1790–1799, 1850–1859, 1940–1950, and 2010–2019,

whereas 0.4 debris flows year–1 were recorded in the 1860s, 1890s and 1910s (Fig. 3B). Interestingly, all episodes with peaks in debris-flow activity are in line with those reported for the

transport-limited, permafrost-dominated Ritigraben catchment (Valais, Western Swiss Alps)52 and coincide with periods characterized by considerable above-average summer (JJA) and early fall

(S) precipitation in the Swiss Alps53. Yet, and despite these decadal fluctuations in process activity at the Multetta fan, the Theil-Sen slope is zero for both the 1687–2020 and 1750–2020

datasets, clearly indicating an absence in changes in process activity. Likewise, we can neither reject a null hypothesis assuming the absence of a trend in the time series using the

Bartels, Wald–Wolfowitz, and Mann–Kendall trend tests (_p_-values > 0.05, Supplementary Table S2), nor detect a significant breakpoint in the cumulative number of events (Fig. 3B). We

also find that debris-flow frequency during the colder episodes of the Little Ice Age (LIA, 1570–190054), known as thgre Maunder (1645–1715) and Dalton (1790–1830) minima, varied between

zero debris flows year–1 during the 1650 s, 1660 s and 1790 s and 0.3 debris flows year–1 in the 1690 s. Unlike other studies according to which debris-flow activity is anticipated to

increase as a result of climate change29,40, we do not detect any indications of enhanced process activity over the last decades that could potentially be linked to global warming (Fig. 3B).

SPATIAL EXTENT OF RECONSTRUCTED DEBRIS FLOWS Due to the massive redistribution of sediment on fans in space and time55,56 and frequent avulsions, a precise reconstruction of the spatial

extent of past debris-flow events is virtually impossible with tree-ring analysis2. In particular, the apparent spatial extent of events decreases once one goes back in time as fewer old

trees will remain available for analysis57 and as older deposits are routinely overridden by more recent activity58. Biases may also result from the annual resolution of tree-ring based

reconstructions, often preventing detection of multiple debris flows occurring in a single year58,59. Here, we overcome these limitations by adopting an original approach by which the fan

was schematically divided into sixteen units delimited by 4 transects and 4 radial subunits (see Methods for details) (Fig. 1D). Debris-flow sizes were defined as being XS, S, M, L, XL and

XXL as soon as they affected 1–10, 10–20, 20–30, 30–40, 40–50 and >50% of the fan surface, respectively (see Methods). Since 1687, 4 (7%), 30 (55%), 9 (16%), 4 (7%), 2 (4%), and 6 (11%)

debris flows were rated as XS, S, M, L, XL and XXL, respectively (Fig. 3B, Supplementary Fig. S4). Over the period 1687–2009, as a result of the convex shape of the transverse profiles,

recurrence intervals of debris flows were significantly lower at the margins (10–20 yr) than in the central part (40–70 yr) of the fan (Supplementary Fig. S4). Also, despite a homogeneous

distribution of older trees on the fan, most debris flows were S or M prior to 1802 and restricted to the easternmost parts of the fan (Fig. 4B). The XXL events of 1816 and 1849 (Fig. 4A)

strongly modified fan morphology and debris-flow patterns, resulting in a shift of activity to the western part of the fan from the mid-19th to the early 20th century (Fig. 4B, Supplementary

Fig. S4). This shift recorded between the 1860s and 1910s and the slight increase in debris-flow activity were caused by a series of XS and S debris flows while larger debris flows were

lacking almost completely during this period (i.e. only 1 L debris flow in 1864). We suggest that the slight increase in debris-flow frequency during this time was possible because the many

debris flows remained (very) small in size and could not therefore empty the sediment reservoirs at Vallun da Piz Daint fully. By contrast, in the transport-limited, permafrost-dominated

Ritigraben catchment52, multiple L and XL debris flows were reconstructed for the same period. Here, changes in the frequency and magnitude of debris flows are considered the response of the

system to more abundant summer precipitation and initial warming after the end of the Little Ice Age. During the 20th and early 21st centuries, any evidence for a change in process activity

or an increase in the occurrence of XL and XXL debris flows are clearly lacking at Multetta (Fig. 3B), and we note a complete absence of L, XL or XXL debris flows since 1990. By contrast,

ample evidence exists for the repeat activation of new paths in the northern and southern parts of the fan after the debris flows of 1917 and 1933 (Fig. 4A, B, Supplementary Fig.  S3). The

spatial patterns of debris-flow activity at the site also confirm that avulsions are typically encouraged by sequences of small-to-medium-sized debris flows followed by a large event2,60,61.

SEDIMENT AVAILABILITY AND TIME-REPOSE PATTERNS Debris-flow frequency of a catchment is, besides climatic thresholds, also controlled by geological, lithological and geomorphic

characteristics56,62. Initiation mechanisms of debris flows include the transition of landslides into debris flows63,64,65, the entrainment and bulking of sediment in loose deposits at the

toe of a cliff66,67 or the mobilization and entrainment of debris by water in channels68,69. Sediment availability must thus be considered another key controlling process variable for

inter-event (repose) intervals of debris flows62. Whereas in transport-llimited basins, an almost unlimited availability of sediment usually results in irregular, random repose time patterns

following an exponential distribution62, regular or clustered repose time patterns are typically observed in supply-limited basins where a substantial time must elapse before the next

debris flow will occur following log-logistic and Weibull distributions. In the case of the Multetta fan, the Weibull distribution provides the best-fitting results (_p_-value > 0.05 and

lowest AIC) for both an initial date of the reconstructed timeseries in 1687 and 1750 (Fig. 5A, B). Likewise, the conditional probability for the occurrence of a new debris flow increases

slightly with time elapsed since the last event. The regular event occurrence reflects the mutual dependency between consecutive debris flows and highlights that the cut-and-fill pattern,

i.e. the time for the system to replenish after a debris-flow event70,71,72, is a key control of debris-flow activity at the Multetta fan. Theoretical understanding exists that possible

changes in the number, duration, or intensity of freeze-thaw cycles due to warming could increase sediment supply in high-mountain catchments73,74,75. The headwaters of the Multetta

debris-flow system are indeed found at elevations for which changes in freeze-thaw cycles are thought to be relevant75. Yet, and despite local warming already exceeding 2 °C since the late

19th century, we cannot detect any changes of a possibly altered sediment availability on debris-flow activity so far. Debris flow is one of the dominant geomorphic processes in mountainous

regions, yet, its documentation or the detection of changes in process activity remains challenging due to the paucity of systematic, long-term records of past events28,35. Here we overcome

this limitation by reconstructing the systematic, multi-centennial (1626–2020) timeseries of debris flows for a supply-limited catchment where process activity is not affected by the

provision of unlimited sediment from thawing permafrost or retreating glaciers. Relying on data from the Multetta, we demonstrate that debris flows in this supply-limited system recur less

frequently than in comparable, transport-limited catchments. In addition, the regular recurrence of debris flows and the resulting repose time patterns also evidence that process activity is

controlled by sediment supply over multi-decadal to centennial timescales and thus much less affected by climate change than transport-limited systems62. Findings from this study have

implications for future torrent management as the implementation of climate-proof measures (e.g., enlargement of hazard zones, re-dimensioning of defense structures76) should be defined

based on sediment availability and the functioning of the debris-flow system. METHODS LIMITED SEDIMENT SUPPLY CONFIRMED BY GEOMORPHIC MAPPING To determine the functioning of the Multetta

debris-flow system and the production/availability of sediment, we realized a detailed mapping of active sediment sources for its headwaters, i.e. the Vallun da Piz Daint. Active sediment

sources were defined here as unvegetated and steep hillslope surfaces where active geomorphic processes can be detected, and where connectivity to the main channel arriving at the fan apex

can be confirmed. This was done by aerial photo interpretation of orthoimages (2022, resolution 10 cm) and the hillshade view of a Light Detection and Range (LiDAR) Digital Elevation Model

(DEM; 2023, resolution 1 m) available from Swisstopo. The high quality of these remote sensing data allowed manual extraction of bedrock and colluvium surfaces for the entire catchment, and

calculation of the relative surface of these geomorphic domains for each active sediment source. Colluvial deposits in the catchment included scree slopes, debris-flow and colluvial fans,

and a large rockfall deposit. DENDROGEOMORPHIC SAMPLING AT MULTETTA FAN Debris flows are the predominant process at Multetta and have formed characteristic geomorphic features, such as

lobes, levees bank erosion and terraces. In the forest virtually every tree shows clear evidence of past debris flow impact on the stem surface, predominantly in the form of injuries or

broken crowns. To gather a representative dataset of past debris flow activity, we sampled trees along four transects (T1–T4) located at 1800–1900, 1784–1900, 1780–1900, 1790–1900 m asl,

respectively (Fig. 1C). On each transect, trees were carefully inspected and sampled based on visible growth disturbances (GDs) on the stem (i.e. scars, decapitation, tilted stems). Two

increment cores were taken from living trees, using a 5.5 mm Pressler increment borer, following the assumed direction of past debris flow events. For visible scars, additional cores or

wedges were taken in the overgrowing callus tissue. For tilted trees, cores were taken at the point of maximum stem bending77. Cross sections were taken from dead trees and stumps. Trees

with growth disturbances (GDs) obviously unrelated to debris flows (e.g., injuries caused by a falling neighboring tree) due to their incoherent position on the stem were systematically

excluded. The position of each sampled tree positions was recorded with an accuracy of 1 m using a Trimble GPS device. In total of 478 _P. mugo_ trees were sampled during a field campaign in

2020. LABORATORY ANALYSES In the laboratory, tree samples were processed according to the standard procedures78. Ring widths were measured on the scanned images and series were cross-dated

using the CDendro-CooRecorder 9.8.1 software suite79. The quality of the cross-dating was evaluated using COFECHA80. Within each ring width series, we identified GDs commonly interpreted as

responses to geomorphic processes including abrupt growth suppression81 (GS), the onset of compression wood82 (CW) and injuries83 (I). Following the criteria proposed by ref. 84, the

intensity of GS and CW was categorized as weak, medium or strong according. Injuries, GS and CW of medium and strong intensity were considered as unambiguous witnesses of debris flows and

used for event detection. The first 30 rings of each tree-ring series, corresponding to juvenile growth, were not included in the analysis, because young flexible trees, which are more

susceptible to bending, could potentially bias the reconstruction85. Only one core per tree was analyzed if the other one did not show obvious GDs, finally 478 _P. mugo_ trees with 683

increment cores and 39 cross sections/wedges were proceeded to build the debris flow chronology. ZONATION OF THE STUDY AREA To account for the wide area and the geomorphic complexity of the

fan, prior to event detection, we divided the study area in different sectors (Fig. 1D). For this purpose, we identified the main fan-surface topographic features, including channels, main

lobes, and levees, on a Digital Elevation Model (DEM) hillshade with 2-m spatial resolution created from a lidar point cloud. We determined the position of the channels using the flow

accumulation tool available from the arc-hydro module of ESRI ArcGIS 10.7. Based on the 2-m DEM, the tool calculates accumulated flow as the accumulated weight of all cells flowing into each

downslope cell in the output raster. Cells were selected by applying a 1200 mm accumulation threshold and were divided into channels and thalwegs. Based on this analysis, we further

identified three compartments (C1–C3) manually following the flow directions and the continuities of the river networks on the Multetta fan (Fig. 1D). These thalwegs distributed almost

parallelly, connect the proximal and the distal area of the fan in the southeastern part and initiate at ~1900 m asl on its northeastern part. They delimit four sectors (SI-SIV) in which

debris flows were reconstructed. DETECTION OF PAST DEBRIS FLOW EVENTS In each sector SI-SIV, the detection of past debris flow events was based on (1) the number, (2) the intensity of GDs

the (3) percentage (It)86 and (4) the spatial patterns of damaged within a given year. The reconstructions starts when the minimum number of trees exceeds 15. Following the recommendations

of Ref. 87, we used flexible It and GD thresholds adjusted to the sample size (ss): GDs ≥2, It ≥6 for ss <50, GDs ≥3 and It ≥4 for 50 < ss ≤ 99, as GDs ≥4 and It ≥2 for ss ≥100.

Following ref. 88, we quantified the robustness of reconstructed events (low, medium, and high confidence levels) based on the intensity of GDs within a given year. In a final step, we

carefully examined the spatial distribution of damaged trees. Years (1) showing incoherent patterns of damaged trees (e.g. GDs evenly distributed on the cone, probably due to climatic

extremes or insect pests), (2) recorded in historical chronicles as snow avalanche years, or (3) characterized by high mortality of _P. mugo_ trees, which is indicated by low tree-ring index

(<1.5 average value), in the event cataster of the Canton of Grisons and the Swiss National Park89 were excluded from analysis. To detect changes in the reconstruction potentially

related to time-varying sample size87,90, we performed a completeness analysis using Negative Binomial and non-parametric change-point analyses50,91 available from the np package in R.

SPATIAL EXTENT OF RECONSTRUCTED EVENTS Due to the intense redistribution of sediments through space and time on debris-flow fans and the frequent avulsions, precise reconstructions of the

spatial extent of past debris events are impossible using tree-ring analysis2. In fact, the spatial extent of events, decreases with age because of fewer old trees57. In addition, part of

older deposits may be overridden or eroded by more recent activity. A smaller number of affected trees may thus not imply that those older events were smaller than more recent flows57

Finally, as tree-ring resolution is typically annual, it must be assumed that all trees affected within a given year were affected by the same event. This may be restrictive assumption if

the typical return period of debris flows is on the order of decades to centuries58. To overcome these limitations, we adopted an original approach and schematically divided the cone into

sixteen regions delimited by the four sectors (SI-SIV) used for event detection and the four transects used for sampling (T1–T4, Fig. 1D). For a given year, a given region (SI.1–S.IV.4) was

considered as affected if (1) an event was reconstructed in the sector and (2) a tree was damaged on the transect T1–T4. Within a given area, the recurrence interval of debris flow events

was calculated as the ratio of the length of the reconstruction to the number of reconstructed events. Finally, if 1–10, 10–20, 20–30, 30–40, 40–50 and >50% of the areas were affected,

the magnitude of the event was classified as XS, S, M, L, XL, XXL (Fig. 4A). TRENDS IN DEBRIS FLOW ACTIVITY There is currently much debate about the impacts of global warming on the

frequency of debris flows37,91,92. An increase in frequency is expected due to the increasing frequency of extreme precipitation events93, warming and thawing of permafrost29, but remains

controversial in historical records94,95 or tree-ring reconstructions27,51. Here, we took advantage of the age of the trees on the debris fan and of the multi-century length of our

reconstruction, to perform several (nonparametric) trend tests for assessing the presence of trends in the decadal frequency of debris flow events. Following refs. 50,91, we used the

nonparametric Mann–Kendall, Wald–Wolowitz trends test and the Theil-Sen slope for assessing the presence of trends in the data set over the 1687–2020 and 1750–2020 periods. REPOSE-TIME

PATTERNS OF DEBRIS FLOW EVENTS AT MULTETTA A significant contributor to debris-flow occurrence is a supply of readily erodible material, often created by rockfalls and landslides71. In

general, debris-flow catchments can be classified as either supply-unlimited (transport-limited) or supply-limited (weathering-limited). Depending on the available sediment load, debris-flow

repose times, i.e. the time elapsed between two consecutive events, follow either more or less regular (supply-limited), rather irregular or purely irregular (supply-unlimited) occurrence

patterns62,96,97. Following Ref. 62, we hypothesize that when events occur continuously and independently at a constant average rate, repose times should be exponentially distributed. By

contrast, debris flow event frequencies showing regular or rather irregular (clustered) repose time patterns, indicating potential dependencies between events, could be efficiently modeled

with respect to a Weibull or a log-logistic distribution, respectively. The three distributions were successively used to model the frequency of the repose times at the Multetta fan.

Distributions yielding a _p-value_ larger than 0.05 were considered suitable and the best-suited distribution was chosen on the basis on the lowest Akaike information criterion (AIC). DATA

AVAILABILITY The base maps in Fig. 1, Figure S1 and Figure S2 were produced using free geodata from the Federal Office of Topography swisstopo https://www.swisstopo.admin.ch/. All tree-ring

data, growth disturbance data and final debris-flow chronology data generated in this study have been deposited in the database named “Climate change has no apparent effect on debris flows

in a supply-limited torrent” under accession code https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.13745071. CODE AVAILABILITY The R code used for completeness analysis in this study is originally from the

previously published paper51 and is available on GitLab at https://gitlab.com/Rexthor/debris-flow-trends-zermatt. The R code used for repose time pattern analysis in this study is originally

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S.l., 2020). Download references ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The authors acknowledge support from the research commission of the Swiss National Park (FoK-SNP). They are grateful to the authorities from

the Canton of Grisons (_Amt für Wald und Naturgefahren, Region 5 Südbünden_) for granting access to the disaster cadaster and for valuable inputs during fieldwork and analyses. J.Q.

benefitted from a China Scholarship Council PhD grant (No 202004910398). AUTHOR INFORMATION AUTHORS AND AFFILIATIONS * Climatic Change Impacts and Risks in the Anthropocene (C-CIA),

Institute for Environmental Sciences, University of Geneva, 66 Boulevard Carl Vogt, CH-1205, Geneva, Switzerland Jiazhi Qie, Adrien Favillier, Juan Antonio Ballesteros Cánovas, Jérôme

Lopez-Saez, Sébastien Guillet, Loïc Francon, Yihua Zhong, Markus Stoffel & Christophe Corona * dendrolab.ch, Department of Earth Sciences, University of Geneva, 13 rue des Maraichers,

CH-1205, Geneva, Switzerland Adrien Favillier & Markus Stoffel * Université Grenoble Alpes, INRAE, CNRS, IRD, Grenoble INP, IGE, 2 rue de la Papeterie BP76, F-38402,

Saint-Martin-d’Hères, France Frédéric Liébault * National Museum of Natural Sciences, MNCN-CSIC, C/ Serrano 115bis, E-28006, Madrid, Spain Juan Antonio Ballesteros Cánovas * Department F.-A.

Forel for Environmental and Aquatic Sciences, University of Geneva, 66 Boulevard Carl Vogt, CH-1205, Geneva, Switzerland Markus Stoffel * Université Grenoble-Alpes, LECA UMR UGA-USMB-CNRS

5553, F-38058, Grenoble, Cedex 9, France Christophe Corona Authors * Jiazhi Qie View author publications You can also search for this author inPubMed Google Scholar * Adrien Favillier View

author publications You can also search for this author inPubMed Google Scholar * Frédéric Liébault View author publications You can also search for this author inPubMed Google Scholar *

Juan Antonio Ballesteros Cánovas View author publications You can also search for this author inPubMed Google Scholar * Jérôme Lopez-Saez View author publications You can also search for

this author inPubMed Google Scholar * Sébastien Guillet View author publications You can also search for this author inPubMed Google Scholar * Loïc Francon View author publications You can

also search for this author inPubMed Google Scholar * Yihua Zhong View author publications You can also search for this author inPubMed Google Scholar * Markus Stoffel View author

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CONTRIBUTIONS C.C. and M.S. designed the study with input from all co-authors. J.Q., A.F., F.L., J.A.B.C., J.L.S., S.G., L.F., Y.Z., M.S. and C.C. participated in fieldwork. J.Q. performed

tree-ring analyses and first interpretations of data with the help of A.F. F.L. realized sediment supply assessments. C.C., M.S. and J.Q. wrote a first draft of the paper, J.Q., A.F., F.L.,

J.A.B.C., J.L.S., S.G., L.F., Y.Z., M.S. and C.C. provided comments and revisions. CORRESPONDING AUTHORS Correspondence to Jiazhi Qie or Markus Stoffel. ETHICS DECLARATIONS COMPETING

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